A packaged-food business with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and exceptional cash generation has risen slightly above its near-term resistance target within a confirmed technical downtrend, carries a dividend payout of 335% of earnings, and shows very weak revenue growth of roughly 3% — the cash conversion is real but the current price already reflects the positives.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Fcf Conversion Without Moat→Stable
- Dividend Payout Far Above Earnings→Stable
- Price Above Target In Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.85 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
Lamb Weston Holdings is North America's largest producer of value-added frozen potato products and a leading international supplier, selling french fries and other potato items under owned and licensed brands to quick-service restaurants, foodservice distributors, and retailers... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.85 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.
About Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
About Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
McDonald's Corporation accounted for approximately 15% of Lamb Weston Holdings' consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, up from 14% and 13% in the two prior years, and the company's ten largest customers together made up about 50% of net sales. Lamb Weston runs 26 production facilities and sells value-added frozen potato products in more than 100 countries through its North America and International segments.
Lamb Weston sells frozen potato products, primarily french fries, under the Lamb Weston brand plus owned and licensed labels such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, as well as customer labels and retailers' own store brands, through a network of internal sales staff and independent brokers, agents and distributors. Customers span quick-service and full-service restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, grocery and mass merchants, among other channels. Its primary cost inputs are raw potatoes, edible oils, packaging, grains, starches and energy, and most of its U.S. potato crop is grown under long-term and annual contracts with growers concentrated in Washington, Idaho and Oregon. The company operates 26 production facilities and supplements owned manufacturing with third-party co-packing agreements, while noting there is currently no active derivatives market for potatoes in the U.S., limiting its ability to hedge that input directly.
Show full overview
Input costs are Lamb Weston's most falsifiable near-term pressure point: fiscal 2025 brought elevated costs across potatoes, edible oils, grains, starches, energy and packaging, and the company has no active derivatives market available to hedge potato prices directly, unlike other agricultural commodities. Tariffs the U.S. announced in April 2025 add a further variable -- products from Lamb Weston's single Canadian production facility and the 5% of its inputs sourced in Canada, primarily edible oils and natural gas, are currently exempt under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but the 10-K flags that new tariffs without specific exemptions could still raise costs the company may not be able to pass through given soft restaurant traffic.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hsbc Holdings PLC Boosts Stock Holdings in Lamb Weston $LW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Fifth Third Bancorp Acquires 45,790 Shares of Lamb Weston $LW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Is Lamb Weston Positioned for a Beat in Its Q4 Earnings Release? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: PepsiCo (PEP) and Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-09-14T07:32:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerMcDonald's Corporation15%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, 2024, and 2023, our largest customer, McDonald's Corporation, accounted for approximately 15%, 14%, and 13%, respectively, of our consolidated net sales.'
- MEDIUMCustomerten largest customers50%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 50% of our net sales.'
- MEDIUMGeographicnet sales outside the U.S.35%10-K Item 1A: 'net sales outside the U.S., ... accounted for approximately 35%, 34%, and 23% of our net sales, respectively.'
- MEDIUMSupplierpotato growers in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon10-K Item 1: 'In the U.S., most of the potato crop used in our products is grown in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 2.05MEDIUMOn June 1, 2026, the board committed to close the Broekhuizenvorst, Netherlands manufacturing facility to improve operational efficiency and align global manufacturing capacity with customer needs. Lamb Weston expects $80-110 million in pre-tax charges, mostly recognized in fiscal 2027, with about 20% as future cash expenditures.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-26Item 1.01LOWLW Ulanqab, a wholly owned PRC subsidiary, entered a RMB 700 million (~$102.9 million) term loan facility with HSBC Bank (China) and other lenders on May 19, 2026, maturing 2031, refinancing debt under the 2022 Facility Agreement; guaranteed by Lamb Weston Holdings.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.85 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $45.42. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $48.07 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $45.42. Stop-loss: $45.42.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.0 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $55.
What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston Holdings is North America's largest producer of value-added frozen potato products and a leading...
Lamb Weston Holdings is North America's largest producer of value-added frozen potato products and a leading international supplier, selling french fries and other potato items under owned and licensed brands to quick-service restaurants, foodservice distributors, and retailers in over 100 countries. The company operates through North America and International segments and sells to a concentrated customer base -- its largest customer, McDonald's Corporation, accounted for approximately 15% of net sales in fiscal 2025, and its ten largest customers made up about 50%.