A packaged-food business with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and exceptional cash generation has risen slightly above its near-term resistance target within a confirmed technical downtrend, carries a dividend payout of 335% of earnings, and shows very weak revenue growth of roughly 3% — the cash conversion is real but the current price already reflects the positives.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Fcf Conversion Without Moat→Stable
- Dividend Payout Far Above Earnings→Stable
- Price Above Target In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jul 24, 2026
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
Lamb Weston, based in Eagle, Idaho, makes and sells value-added frozen potato products, mostly french fries, and is the number one supplier in North America, with operations in 32 countries and 25 production facilities. It sells to quick service and full-service restaurant... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
About Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
McDonald's Corporation accounted for approximately 15% of Lamb Weston's consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, up from 13% in fiscal 2023, and the ten largest customers together made up about 50%. The company, headquartered in Eagle, Idaho, ranks as the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America, operates 26 production facilities, and employed roughly 10,100 people as of July 17, 2025.
Lamb Weston reports two segments, North America and International, selling frozen potatoes, commercial ingredients and appetizers, with French fries making up most of the portfolio. Customers include quick service and full-service restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, non-commercial channels and retailers, reached through internal sales staff and independent brokers, agents and distributors. Net sales outside the United States were 35% of the total in fiscal 2025, up from 23% in fiscal 2023, and export sales from the U.S. were 6%. Raw potatoes come under strategic long-term grower relationships and short-term annual contracts, mostly from Washington, Idaho and Oregon in the U.S., and the 10-K notes that no active derivatives market for potatoes exists in the U.S. The company also holds a 50% stake in the Lamb Weston RDO joint venture and 75% of a joint venture in Austria, and sources a portion of products from co-packers. McCain Foods, J.R. Simplot, The Kraft Heinz Company, Aviko and Cavendish Farms count among its named competitors.
Show full overview
Footprint and cost programs frame the main exposure. In October 2024 the company began a restructuring plan, and in July 2025 it announced a new Cost Savings Program. In June 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K a plan to close its Broekhuizenvorst, Netherlands, manufacturing facility, with expected pre-tax charges of $80 million to $110 million, mostly in fiscal 2027. Labor adds pressure: about 30% of employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements, and 65% of the hourly employees under those contracts are in negotiations or see agreements expire within twelve months.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 6, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Oct 5, 2026 transition and separation agreement: Marc Schroeder, President, International, resigned; he stays as President through Dec 31, 2026 and advises until Feb 15, 2027. Prorated equity vesting, one-year non-compete. No successor named.
Latest news
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW) Stock Down 3.6% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 83/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - marketwatch.com — marketwatch.com negative
- NEWS JPMorgan Chase & Co. Has Lowered Expectations for Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW) Stock Price - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS JPMorgan Chase & Co. Has Lowered Expectations for Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW) Stock Price - marketbeat.com — marketbeat.com negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerMcDonald's Corporation15%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, McDonald’s Corporation, accounted for approximately 15%, 15%, and 14% of our consolidated net sales in fiscal 2026, 2025, and 2024, respectively.'
- MEDIUMCustomerten largest customers50%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2026, our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 50% of our net sales.'
- MEDIUMGeographicnet sales outside the U.S.35%10-K Item 1A: 'net sales outside the U.S., primarily in Australia, Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Mexico, and Taiwan, accounted for approximately 35%, 35%, and 34% of our net sales'
- MEDIUMSupplierco-packers10-K Item 1A: 'We believe that there are a limited number of competent, high-quality co-packers in the industry'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-06Item 5.02MEDIUMOct 5, 2026 transition and separation agreement: Marc Schroeder, President, International, resigned; he stays as President through Dec 31, 2026 and advises until Feb 15, 2027. Prorated equity vesting, one-year non-compete. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $50.07. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $48.72 reached (−8.9% from $53.49); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $50.07. Stop-loss: $50.07.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.2 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $56.
What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston, based in Eagle, Idaho, makes and sells value-added frozen potato products, mostly french fries, and is the...
Lamb Weston, based in Eagle, Idaho, makes and sells value-added frozen potato products, mostly french fries, and is the number one supplier in North America, with operations in 32 countries and 25 production facilities. It sells to quick service and full-service restaurant chains, foodservice distributors and retailers through two segments, North America and International. Its ten largest customers were about 50% of fiscal 2026 net sales, and McDonald's alone was about 15%.