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LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc.Buy Wait6.1·$143.94-2.41%
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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $147.26 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Negative momentum.

Grand Canyon Education is an education services company providing technology, marketing, counseling, and back-office services to 20 university partners across the U.S., with Grand Canyon University (GCU, 131,800 students) as its most significant partner. Revenue is primarily... Read more

$143.94+27.7% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#5 of 15 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.79%
Entry $147.26(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $137.75Target $177.93(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$209.33+45.4%3 analysts
$177.93our TP
$143.94price
$209.33mean
$230

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $147.26 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: GCU
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.5
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn19.5%
ROE29.8%
Rev Growth6.7%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C7.00bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$95-34.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerGCU
    10-K Item 1A: 'We expect the revenue derived from our Master Services Agreement with GCU to account for a large percentage of our revenue for the foreseeable future.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Grand Canyon Education appointed Dilek Marsh as Chief Information Officer effective February 9, 2026, consolidating the CIO and CTO roles. Ms. Marsh had been serving as the Company's Chief Technology Officer since July 2021.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.2
Volume
1.7
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
4.7
Quality Rank
8.6
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $143.80Resistance $164.09

Price Targets

$138
$147
$178
A.Upside+23.6%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.4%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LOPE stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $147.26 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $177.93 (+23.6%), stop $137.75 (−4.5%), Setup A.R:R 4.1:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LOPE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $177.93 (+27.7% upside). Target $177.93 (+23.6%), stop $137.75 (−4.5%), Setup A.R:R 4.1:1. Stop-loss: $137.75.

What are the risks of investing in LOPE?

Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is LOPE overvalued or undervalued?

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LOPE?

8 analysts cover LOPE with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $209.

What does Grand Canyon Education, Inc. do?Grand Canyon Education is an education services company providing technology, marketing, counseling, and back-office...

Grand Canyon Education is an education services company providing technology, marketing, counseling, and back-office services to 20 university partners across the U.S., with Grand Canyon University (GCU, 131,800 students) as its most significant partner. Revenue is primarily derived from a Master Services Agreement with GCU, structured as a percentage of tuition revenue under a bundled services model.

Related stocks: TAL (TAL Education Group) · EDU (New Oriental Education & Techno) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) · PRDO (Perdoceo Education Corporation) · AFYA (Afya Limited)
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