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PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, IncBuy Wait6.6·$24.31
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Phoenix Education Partners screens cheap on a PEG basis with a strong Piotroski quality score and an imminent earnings catalyst backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak, though falling on-balance volume tempers the near-term technical picture.

Thesis pillars

  • Falling Obv Momentum Caution↑Improving
  • Cheap Peg Valuation→Stable
  • Strong Piotroski Quality→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 20, 2025

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc (PXED) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $23.40. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $24.31. Engine's entry $23.40 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV funds (88.6%); Concentration risk — Product: degree-granting programs (97.0%).

Phoenix Education Partners operates the University of Phoenix, an online, for-profit university serving primarily working adult learners, with average total degreed enrollment of 81,900 students and net revenue of $1,007 million in fiscal 2025, up from $835 million in fiscal... Read more

$24.31+45.8% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#2 of 14 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield20.22%
IncomeYield3.46%Payout19.25%sustainable
Entry $23.40(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $21.76Target $35.45(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.8:1
Analyst consensus$40.75+67.6%8 analysts
$35.45our TP
$24.31price
$40.75mean
$51

Wait for pullback to $23.40. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $24.31. Engine's entry $23.40 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV funds (88.6%); Concentration risk — Product: degree-granting programs (97.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 43% MoS with quality 8.0. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Phoenix Education Partners, Inc

About Phoenix Education Partners, Inc

Phoenix Education Partners' University of Phoenix generated $1,007 million in net revenue for fiscal 2025, up from $835 million in fiscal 2023, serving an Average Total Degreed Enrollment of 81,900 students — 66,300 undergraduate and 15,600 graduate. Degree-granting programs across 72 degree and 33 non-degree certificate programs accounted for approximately 97% of net revenue, and roughly 32% of enrollment came through employer-relationship (B2B) tuition-discount programs.

Phoenix Education Partners earns tuition revenue predominantly from working-adult students enrolled either directly or through employer partnerships that provide discounted tuition, with bachelor's programs making up 70% of fiscal 2025 degreed enrollment, master's 16%, associate's 11%, and doctoral 3%. The University of Phoenix, accredited by the Higher Learning Commission since 1978, competes against more than 5,000 U.S. colleges and universities in a fragmented post-secondary market, differentiating on affordability, flexible asynchronous learning, and skills-badge credentialing built on an AI-enabled technology platform for student engagement monitoring and enrollment support. Since Apollo Global Management and Vistria Group acquired the University's predecessor in 2017, the company narrowed its footprint to a single Phoenix, Arizona campus, exited non-core international schools, and completed an October 2025 initial public offering in which the two sponsors sold $156.4 million of existing shares without the company receiving proceeds.

Show full overview

Phoenix Education Partners' single largest exposure is regulatory, not competitive: the 10-K discloses that the University derived 88.6% of its cash-basis revenue from Title IV federal financial aid funds in its most recent fiscal year, putting it squarely under the Department of Education's 90/10 Rule, which requires for-profit institutions to draw at least 10% of revenue from non-Title IV sources. If that percentage were projected to exceed or reach 90% in a given fiscal year, the company would need to raise tuition, cut costs, or make programmatic changes to bring the ratio back into compliance — any of which the filing says could materially affect its financial condition.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

From Phoenix Education Partners, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV funds (88.6%)
Concentration risk — Product: degree-granting programs (97.0%)
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.5
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$876M
EV/EBITDA4.2
Profit Mgn8.2%
ROE25.3%
Rev Growth0.0%
Beta—
Dividend3.46%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryTitle IV funds89%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived 88.6% of our cash basis revenue from Title IV funds in our most recent fiscal year'
  • HIGHProductdegree-granting programs97%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our degree-granting programs represented approximately 97% of our net revenue for fiscal year 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.4
Rsi
3.5
Macd
8.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 5.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.41Resistance $27.23

Price Targets

$22
$23
$35
A.Upside+45.8%
A.R:R5.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.2%
Max %2.4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: MICRO-cap BUY_NOW needs quality>=8.5 or MoS>=50%
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PXED stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $23.40. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $24.31. Engine's entry $23.40 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV funds (88.6%); Concentration risk — Product: degree-granting programs (97.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 43% MoS with quality 8.0. Target $35.45 (+45.8%), stop $21.76 (−11.7%), A.R:R 5.8:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

What is the PXED stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.45 (+45.8% upside). Target $35.45 (+45.8%), stop $21.76 (−11.7%), A.R:R 5.8:1. Stop-loss: $21.76.

What are the risks of investing in PXED?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV funds (88.6%); Concentration risk — Product: degree-granting programs (97.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is PXED overvalued or undervalued?

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about PXED?

14 analysts cover PXED with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Phoenix Education Partners, Inc do?Phoenix Education Partners operates the University of Phoenix, an online, for-profit university serving primarily...

Phoenix Education Partners operates the University of Phoenix, an online, for-profit university serving primarily working adult learners, with average total degreed enrollment of 81,900 students and net revenue of $1,007 million in fiscal 2025, up from $835 million in fiscal 2023. Degree-granting programs generated approximately 97% of net revenue, and the university derived 88.6% of its cash-basis revenue from Title IV federal financial aid funds.

Related stocks: COUR (Coursera, Inc.) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) · CVSA (Covista Inc.) · LOPE (Grand Canyon Education, Inc.) · AFYA (Afya Limited)
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