Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) Stock Analysis
Temp Headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $168.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Thin upside margin: 9.3%.
Grand Canyon Education provides technology, marketing, enrollment, and support services to 20 university partners across the US. GCU (over 131,800 students) is its most significant partner and accounts for a large percentage of revenue under a Master Services Agreement. GCE has... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $168.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Thin upside margin: 9.3%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerGCU10-K Item 1A: 'We expect the revenue derived from our Master Services Agreement with GCU to account for a large percentage of our revenue for the foreseeable future'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOWDilek Marsh appointed as Chief Information Officer effective February 9, 2026, assuming former CIO responsibilities and retaining CTO role. Annual base salary increased to 346,000 with 50% target bonus.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $168.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Thin upside margin: 9.3%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $181.05 (+7.7%), stop $156.17 (−7.6%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $181.05 (+9.3% upside). Target $181.05 (+7.7%), stop $156.17 (−7.6%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $156.17.
Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Weak growth.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.9 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover LOPE with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $213.
What does Grand Canyon Education, Inc. do?Grand Canyon Education provides technology, marketing, enrollment, and support services to 20 university partners...
Grand Canyon Education provides technology, marketing, enrollment, and support services to 20 university partners across the US. GCU (over 131,800 students) is its most significant partner and accounts for a large percentage of revenue under a Master Services Agreement. GCE has invested over 350M in technology over 17 years supporting scalable systems.