Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
- ▸Attractively valued
LOPE · Why this verdict
Why Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.9 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.2 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 3.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 8.74
- ▸Above max pain $95
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.71
Upside
+21.5%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (9.0) with weak momentum (3.0)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.0<4.5 outcome against Quality at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.71.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.0, Value at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Peer rank at 3.6, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.71 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.