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LLYEli Lilly and CompanyHold6.3·$1126.50-0.57%
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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1126.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.8% away).

Eli Lilly discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals globally in a single business segment, selling in ~90 countries through wholesalers and healthcare providers. Key products span cardiometabolic (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance), oncology (Verzenio,... Read more

$1126.50+3.0% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield0.91%
IncomeYield0.61%(5y avg 0.89%)Payout22.13%sustainable
Stop $1046.68Target $1159.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$1215.79+7.9%29 analysts
$1159.08our TP
$1126.50price
$1215.79mean
$850
$1500

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1126.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.75, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.8% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.3
P/E (Fwd)25.5
Mkt Cap$1.01T
EV/EBITDA28.9
Profit Mgn35.0%
ROE107.5%
Rev Growth55.5%
Beta0.52
Dividend0.61%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$1290+14.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.7
Pe
3.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward Pe
4.9
Peg Ratio
5.0
Forward P/E: 25.5xPEG: 1.52
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.75EARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $978.87Resistance $1182.73

Price Targets

$1047
$1159
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.8% upside)
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LLY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1126.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $1159.08 (+2.9%), stop $1046.68 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1159.08 (+3.0% upside). Target $1159.08 (+2.9%), stop $1046.68 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $1046.68.

What are the risks of investing in LLY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.8% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is LLY overvalued or undervalued?

Eli Lilly and Company trades at a P/E of 40.3 (forward 25.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about LLY?

39 analysts cover LLY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $1216.

What does Eli Lilly and Company do?Eli Lilly discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals globally in a single business segment, selling...

Eli Lilly discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals globally in a single business segment, selling in ~90 countries through wholesalers and healthcare providers. Key products span cardiometabolic (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance), oncology (Verzenio, Kyprolis), immunology (Taltz, Olumiant), and neuroscience; six products collectively accounted for 82% of total revenues in 2025.

Related stocks: NVO (Novo Nordisk A/S) · GILD (Gilead Sciences, Inc.) · BMY (Bristol-Myers Squibb Company) · AMGN (Amgen Inc.) · AZN (AstraZeneca PLC)
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