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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Wait for pullback to $947.91. At $979.38 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $947.91 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Eli Lilly discovers and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single segment globally. Key products include Mounjaro/Zepbound (GLP-1 class, 56% of 2025 revenues), Verzenio, Trulicity, Taltz, and Jardiance, which collectively accounted for 82% of 2025 revenues.

$979.38+14.2% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
Entry $947.91(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $882.58Target $1082.11(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$1202.34+22.8%29 analysts
$1082.11our TP
$979.38price
$1202.34mean
$850
$1500

Wait for pullback to $947.91. At $979.38 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $947.91 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.9x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.53)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.2
P/E (Fwd)21.9
Mkt Cap$836.3B
EV/EBITDA24.1
Profit Mgn35.0%
ROE
Rev Growth55.5%
Beta0.50
Dividend0.67%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.98neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$560-42.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductMounjaro and Zepbound56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Mounjaro and Zepbound accounted for 56 percent of our total revenues in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
0.7
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.2
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Conservative
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $850.51Resistance $981.04

Price Targets

$883
$948
$1082
A.Upside+10.5%
A.R:R0.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.2%
Max %2.4%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! R/R 0.9x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LLY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $947.91. At $979.38 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $947.91 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.9x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $1082.11 (+10.5%), stop $882.58 (−11.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1082.11 (+14.2% upside). Target $1082.11 (+10.5%), stop $882.58 (−11.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $882.58.

What are the risks of investing in LLY?

Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Is LLY overvalued or undervalued?

Eli Lilly and Company trades at a P/E of 33.2 (forward 21.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LLY?

39 analysts cover LLY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $1202.

What does Eli Lilly and Company do?Eli Lilly discovers and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single segment globally. Key products include...

Eli Lilly discovers and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single segment globally. Key products include Mounjaro/Zepbound (GLP-1 class, 56% of 2025 revenues), Verzenio, Trulicity, Taltz, and Jardiance, which collectively accounted for 82% of 2025 revenues.

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