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GFLGFL Environmental Inc. SubordinSell5.3·$41.37+2.81%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

GFL's free cash flow conversion at just 16% of net income, a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, and quality below the minimum threshold collectively render the setup unattractive despite a wide gap to analyst price targets.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum FloorImproving
  • Free Cash Flow Quality Red FlagStable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Death CrossImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin (GFL) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.37: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality.

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and... Read more

$41.37+5.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#5 of 8 Waste Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.23%
IncomeYield0.17%(5y avg 0.14%)Payout16.69%sustainable
Stop $39.09Target $43.57(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$50.08+21.1%12 analysts
$43.57our TP
$41.37price
$50.08mean
$63

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.37: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)108.8
P/E (Fwd)43.3
Mkt Cap$14.5B
EV/EBITDA13.9
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE3.0%
Rev Growth5.4%
Beta0.49
Dividend0.17%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.44bearish
IV50%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Roa
0.9
Roe
1.0
Operating Margin
1.3
Fcf Quality
1.3
Net Margin
1.6
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 16% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
2.4
Gap
4.0
52w Position
6.1
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 8.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.09Resistance $43.03

Price Targets

$39
$44
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.37: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $39.09. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.57 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $39.09. Stop-loss: $39.09.

What are the risks of investing in GFL?

Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is GFL overvalued or undervalued?

GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin trades at a P/E of 108.8 (forward 43.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFL?

18 analysts cover GFL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $50.

What does GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin do?GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It...

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.

Related stocks: RSG (Republic Services, Inc.) · WM (Waste Management, Inc.) · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.) · WCN (Waste Connections, Inc.) · CWST (Casella Waste Systems, Inc.)
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