Waste Management is a high-quality business with a 30% return on equity and top-tier peer ranking on quality, but the stock has only 6.2% upside to analyst targets, two recent earnings misses, and sits below its 200-day moving average, leaving insufficient margin of safety at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Return On Equity→Stable
- Thin Upside To Analyst Target↑Improving
- Recent Earnings Miss Pattern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Waste Management
Sell if holding. At $218.09, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this document, those terms refer to Waste Management, Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $218.09, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Waste Management, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Aug 26, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: On August 24, 2026, James C. Fish, Jr. notified the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Waste Management, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Waste Management (WM) Could Be 8% Undervalued Ahead Of Earnings - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS OMERS ADMINISTRATION Corp Raises Stock Position in Waste Management, Inc. $WM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Waste Management (NYSE:WM) Misses Q1 CY2026 Sales Expectations - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Waste Management (NYSE:WM) Misses Q1 CY2026 Sales Expectations - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS WASTE MANAGEMENT ($WM) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
Generated 2026-09-14T20:47:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-26Item 5.02MEDIUMOn August 24, 2026, James C. Fish, Jr. notified the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Waste Management, Inc.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $218.09, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $210.99. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $233.93 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $210.99. Stop-loss: $210.99.
Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.
Waste Management, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.2 (forward 23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
39 analysts cover WM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $260.
What does Waste Management, Inc. do?Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the...
Waste Management, Inc. is a holding company and all operations are conducted by its subsidiaries. When the terms "the Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this document, those terms refer to Waste Management, Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries and consolidated variable interest entities. When we use the term "WMI," we are referring only to Waste Management, Inc., the parent holding company.