Skip to main content
CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc.Sell5.1·$84.40-1.75%
Open full analysis

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $84.40: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.46; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Casella Waste Systems is a vertically integrated regional solid waste company serving New England, New York, and Mid-Atlantic states through Eastern, Western, Mid-Atlantic, and Resource Solutions segments, with 2025 revenues of approximately $1.84B across the four segments.... Read more

$84.40+15.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#5 of 7 Waste Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.08%
Stop $78.66Target $97.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$112.00+32.7%10 analysts
$97.44our TP
$84.40price
$112.00mean
$130

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $84.40: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.46; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

About Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

Casella Waste Systems generated approximately $1.84 billion in total revenues in fiscal year 2025 across 11 northeastern U.S. states, split among four segments: Western ($663 million), Eastern ($473 million), Resource Solutions ($360 million), and Mid-Atlantic ($341 million). The company employed approximately 5,600 people as of January 2026, about 270 covered by collective bargaining agreements, and collection pricing advanced 5.0% in fiscal 2025.

Casella earns revenue through per-route collection fees under one-to-five year commercial service agreements and per-ton tipping fees at its nine Subtitle D and C&D landfills and 72 transfer stations. A floating energy and environmental fee program partially offsets diesel exposure; the company consumed about 15 million gallons of diesel in solid waste operations in fiscal 2025. The recycling business deploys a sustainability recycling adjustment fee that floats inversely with commodity prices, reducing downside exposure to paper, plastics, and metals market cycles. Municipal collection contracts are subject to periodic competitive bidding and compete against larger national operators with significantly greater financial resources, including those with adjacent market positions in the Northeast. Casella closed nine acquisitions in fiscal 2025 with over $110 million in total annualized revenues.

Show full overview

Operations and customers are concentrated principally in New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and other Mid-Atlantic states, making results susceptible to regional economic cycles and weather events. Near-term disposal capacity constraints compound this concentration: the 10-K discloses that Casella expects to consume all remaining permitted capacity at the NCES Landfill in Bethlehem, New Hampshire during fiscal year 2027, while the landfill under development in Dalton, New Hampshire is unlikely to be permitted and operational by that deadline. The Ontario County Landfill in Seneca, New York is set to close at the end of fiscal year 2028 when its 25-year operating agreement expires.

See also: Industrials · Waste Management

From Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)768.9
P/E (Fwd)56.4
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA16.0
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE0.5%
Rev Growth9.6%
Beta0.78
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.46bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNew England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our operations and customers are concentrated principally in New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    SVP and COO of Solid Waste Operations Sean Steves resigned effective March 20, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. Company initiated search for successor. No disagreement with operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.2
Net Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
1.1
Roa
1.2
Gross Margin
2.7
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.2
Piotroski F
8.9
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
2.2
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $80.91Resistance $90.28

Price Targets

$79
$97
A.Upside+15.5%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CWST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $84.40: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.46; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $78.66. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CWST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $97.44 (+15.2% upside). Prior stop was $78.66. Stop-loss: $78.66.

What are the risks of investing in CWST?

Concentration risk — Geographic: New England, New York, Pennsylvania and other Mid-Atlantic states; Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is CWST overvalued or undervalued?

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 768.9 (forward 56.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CWST?

18 analysts cover CWST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $112.

What does Casella Waste Systems, Inc. do?Casella Waste Systems is a vertically integrated regional solid waste company serving New England, New York, and...

Casella Waste Systems is a vertically integrated regional solid waste company serving New England, New York, and Mid-Atlantic states through Eastern, Western, Mid-Atlantic, and Resource Solutions segments, with 2025 revenues of approximately $1.84B across the four segments. Revenue comes from collection, disposal tipping fees, recycling, and organics services under multi-year contracts with commercial, municipal, and residential customers. The company has made 76 acquisitions since 2018 and operates 9 landfills across the Northeast.

Related stocks: GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin) · WCN (Waste Connections, Inc.) · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.) · NVRI (Enviri Corporation)
Home Stocks CWST

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga42d agoAnalyst
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Benzinga46d ago
Benzinga46d agoEarnings