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RSGRepublic Services, Inc.Sell5.3·$208.16-0.83%
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Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. At $208.16, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Republic Services is one of the largest environmental services providers in North America, operating 377 collection operations, 255 transfer stations, 79 recycling centers, and 207 active landfills across the US and Canada. Revenue comes from collection contracts with... Read more

$208.16+5.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#3 of 7 Waste Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.80%
IncomeYield1.19%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout35.22%sustainable
Stop $199.81Target $219.22(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$243.58+17.0%24 analysts
$219.22our TP
$208.16price
$243.58mean
$200
$270

Sell if holding. At $208.16, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.3%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.1
P/E (Fwd)26.0
Mkt Cap$64.6B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn13.0%
ROE18.3%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta0.41
Dividend1.19%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$160-23.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Republic Services Board appointed Ian Craig, age 53, as a new director effective February 10, 2026. Routine board appointment; no disagreement or officer change involved.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
3.5
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $197.62Resistance $218.91

Price Targets

$200
$219
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RSG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $208.16, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $199.81. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RSG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $219.22 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $199.81. Stop-loss: $199.81.

What are the risks of investing in RSG?

Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Weak growth.

Is RSG overvalued or undervalued?

Republic Services, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.1 (forward 26.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RSG?

33 analysts cover RSG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $244.

What does Republic Services, Inc. do?Republic Services is one of the largest environmental services providers in North America, operating 377 collection...

Republic Services is one of the largest environmental services providers in North America, operating 377 collection operations, 255 transfer stations, 79 recycling centers, and 207 active landfills across the US and Canada. Revenue comes from collection contracts with municipalities, businesses, and residential customers, plus disposal and recycling fees. It employs ~42,000 workers.

Related stocks: WM (Waste Management, Inc.) · GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin) · WCN (Waste Connections, Inc.) · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.)
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