Embraer shows a compelling combination of high growth scores and an attractive valuation — PEG of 0.13, a forward P/E of 16.0 times, and 18.2% upside to the consensus target — but quarterly earnings delivery has alternated between beats and misses with a negative average surprise of roughly -14% over four quarters, free cash flow is negative, and business quality sits below the minimum threshold, making this a setup that warrants monitoring before committing fresh capital.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Negative Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Strong Revenue Earnings Growth Profile→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. At $75.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 3.5%.
Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The... Read more
Sell if holding. At $75.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 3.5%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-23Recent Developments — Embraer S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Embraer, Raises Price Target to $104 — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS CORRECTION: Embraer Q2 Adj. EPADS $1.22 Beats $0.61 Estimate, Sales $2.235B Beat $2.050B Estimate — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Embraer Q2 Adj. EPS $0.30 Beats $0.21 Estimate — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Embraer Affirms FY2026 Sales Guidance of $8.200B-$8.500B vs $8.649B Est — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Embraer Q2 Sales $2.200B Beat $2.032B Estimate — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-08-23T03:21:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $75.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 3.5%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $70.75. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $78.60 (+3.5% upside). Prior stop was $70.75. Stop-loss: $70.75.
Thin upside margin: 3.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Embraer S.A. trades at a P/E of 30.4 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover EMBJ with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $87.
What does Embraer S.A. do?Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and...
Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets. The Defense & Security segment develops and produces military aircraft; and is involved in research and development of software and integrated information systems, communications, border monitoring and surveillance, space systems/satellites, and aircraft modernization services and services support, as well as command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. The Executive Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells executive jets. The Service & Support segment provides field and technical support, flight operations solutions, aircraft modification, materials management, maintenance solutions, and training programs. The Other segment engages in the supply of structural parts and hydraulic systems; production of agricultural crop-spraying aircraft; development and certification of eVTOLs; creation of a maintenance and service network, and air traffic control system for eVTOLs; development and manufacture of electrical propulsion systems; cybersecurity; and software and technical products. Additionally, the company is involved in leasing of used aircraft; pilot, mechanic, and crew training; engineering services; retail trade, maintenance, and repair of computer products; information technology consulting, data processing, application service providers, and internet hosting; and fabrication of aircraft interiors. The company was formerly known as Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. and changed its name to Embraer S.A. in November 2010. Embraer S.A. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.