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HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.Buy Wait6.3·$250.01-2.78%
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Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Wait for pullback to $239.31. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $250.01. Engine's entry $239.31 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%).

Howmet Aerospace manufactures advanced engineered components for aerospace (approximately 70% of 2025 revenue) and commercial transportation (approximately 15%), including jet engine parts, fasteners, airframe structures, and forged aluminum wheels. RTX Corporation and GE... Read more

$250.01+10.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.16%
IncomeYield0.19%Payout10.67%sustainable
Entry $239.31(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $223.84Target $272.91(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1Setup A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$303.23+21.3%20 analysts
$272.91our TP
$250.01price
$303.23mean
$340

Wait for pullback to $239.31. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $250.01. Engine's entry $239.31 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.60, quality 7.8/10, growth 8.7/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%)
Thin upside margin: 9.4%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)59.5
P/E (Fwd)42.7
Mkt Cap$102.9B
EV/EBITDA41.1
Profit Mgn20.2%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth19.1%
Beta1.19
Dividend0.19%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductaerospace market70%
    10-K Item 1: 'Howmet's largest market is aerospace, which represented approximately 70% of the Company's revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerRTX Corporation11%
    10-K Item 1: 'RTX Corporation and GE Aerospace each represented approximately 11% of the Company's third-party sales'
  • MEDIUMCustomerGE Aerospace11%
    10-K Item 1: 'RTX Corporation and GE Aerospace each represented approximately 11% of the Company's third-party sales'
  • HIGHGeographicNorth America72%
    10-K Item 1: 'North America and Europe generated 72% and 22%, respectively, of Howmet's sales in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $243.68Resistance $276.67

Price Targets

$224
$239
$273
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HWM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $239.31. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $250.01. Engine's entry $239.31 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.60, quality 7.8/10, growth 8.7/10). Target $272.91 (+9.2%), stop $223.84 (−11.7%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HWM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $272.91 (+10.2% upside). Target $272.91 (+9.2%), stop $223.84 (−11.7%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $223.84.

What are the risks of investing in HWM?

Concentration risk — Product: aerospace market (70.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (72.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.4%.

Is HWM overvalued or undervalued?

Howmet Aerospace Inc. trades at a P/E of 59.5 (forward 42.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HWM?

28 analysts cover HWM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $303.

What does Howmet Aerospace Inc. do?Howmet Aerospace manufactures advanced engineered components for aerospace (approximately 70% of 2025 revenue) and...

Howmet Aerospace manufactures advanced engineered components for aerospace (approximately 70% of 2025 revenue) and commercial transportation (approximately 15%), including jet engine parts, fasteners, airframe structures, and forged aluminum wheels. RTX Corporation and GE Aerospace each represented approximately 11% of 2025 third-party sales, and the company operates in 19 countries.

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