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DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.Sell4.9·$210.29-0.56%
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Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $210.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5.

Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn Steakhouse (591), Chuy's (108), Ruth's Chris (82), The Capital Grille (71), and others in the U.S. and Canada. Fiscal 2025 total sales were $12.08B across four... Read more

$210.29-0.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#18 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.80%
IncomeYield2.84%(5y avg 3.00%)Payout62.17%
Stop $199.36Target $209.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$226.23+7.6%26 analysts
$209.86our TP
$210.29price
$226.23mean
$156
$276

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $210.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jun 25, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.3
P/E (Fwd)18.6
Mkt Cap$24.2B
EV/EBITDA16.0
Profit Mgn8.7%
ROE51.5%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.59
Dividend2.84%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.65bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$330+56.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.3
Revenue Growth
4.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.2
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 10 daysYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
1.5
52w Position
9.0
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $189.97Resistance $214.14

Price Targets

$199
$210
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $210.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $199.36. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the DRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $209.86 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $199.36. Stop-loss: $199.36.

What are the risks of investing in DRI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is DRI overvalued or undervalued?

Darden Restaurants, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DRI?

34 analysts cover DRI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $226.

What does Darden Restaurants, Inc. do?Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn...

Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn Steakhouse (591), Chuy's (108), Ruth's Chris (82), The Capital Grille (71), and others in the U.S. and Canada. Fiscal 2025 total sales were $12.08B across four reportable segments; Darden acquired Chuy's in October 2024 for $613.7M net.

Related stocks: YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · MCD (McDonald's Corporation) · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor)
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