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DGDollar General CorporationSell5.2·$116.64+1.61%
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Dollar General Corporation (DG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.64 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%).

Dollar General, the largest discount retailer in the U.S. by number of stores, operated 20,959 locations in 48 states and Mexico as of February 27, 2026, selling consumables, seasonal, home, and apparel items at prices typically $10 or less. The company serves low- and... Read more

$116.64+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.43%
IncomeYield2.06%(5y avg 1.62%)Payout33.38%sustainable
Stop $108.48Target $118.12(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$131.24+12.5%29 analysts
$118.12our TP
$116.64price
$131.24mean
$90
$175

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.64 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202673d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.2
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$25.3B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE18.9%
Rev Growth3.4%
Beta0.26
Dividend2.06%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C6.74bearish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$220+88.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductConsumables82%
    10-K Item 1: 'Consumables is our largest merchandise category ... 82.0'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board approved hiring Jerry W. Fleeman Jr. to succeed Todd Vasos as CEO effective January 1, 2027. Vasos to serve as Senior Advisor through April 2, 2027 and remain a Board member. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.3
52w Position
4.8
Gap
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $99.57Resistance $119.20

Price Targets

$108
$118
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.3% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.64 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $108.48. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.12 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $108.48. Stop-loss: $108.48.

What are the risks of investing in DG?

Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is DG overvalued or undervalued?

Dollar General Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DG?

39 analysts cover DG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $131.

What does Dollar General Corporation do?Dollar General, the largest discount retailer in the U.S. by number of stores, operated 20,959 locations in 48 states...

Dollar General, the largest discount retailer in the U.S. by number of stores, operated 20,959 locations in 48 states and Mexico as of February 27, 2026, selling consumables, seasonal, home, and apparel items at prices typically $10 or less. The company serves low- and fixed-income households through small-box stores averaging 7,500 sq ft, with consumables comprising 82% of net sales in 2025 and approximately 194,000 employees.

Related stocks: OLLI (Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings) · TBBB (BBB Foods Inc.) · DLTR (Dollar Tree, Inc.) · BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I) · TGT (Target Corporation)
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