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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Wait for pullback to $82.61. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $84.51. Engine's entry $82.61 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this... Read more

$84.51+54.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 9 Discount Stores
Entry $82.61(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $75.22Target $124.56(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.4:1Setup A.R:R 7.7:1
Analyst target$138.40+63.8%15 analysts
$124.56our TP
$84.51price
$138.40mean
$157

Wait for pullback to $82.61. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $84.51. Engine's entry $82.61 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.2
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA16.0
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth16.8%
Beta0.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$55-34.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On March 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") accepted Kevin McLain's notice of his planned retirement, which is effective May 1, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $84.29Resistance $99.19

Price Targets

$75
$83
$125
A.Upside+47.4%
A.R:R5.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)7.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-02 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLLI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $82.61. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $84.51. Engine's entry $82.61 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $124.56 (+47.4%), stop $75.22 (−12.4%), Setup A.R:R 7.7:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OLLI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $124.56 (+54.0% upside). Target $124.56 (+47.4%), stop $75.22 (−12.4%), Setup A.R:R 7.7:1. Stop-loss: $75.22.

What are the risks of investing in OLLI?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is OLLI overvalued or undervalued?

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings trades at a P/E of 22.2 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about OLLI?

22 analysts cover OLLI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $138.

What does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings do?Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a...

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this through a flexible buying model that focuses on closeout merchandise and excess inventory from suppliers and manufacturers around the world.

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