Ollie's Bargain Outlet holds a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a PEG ratio of 0.85, and analysts projecting 43% upside, with the discount retail model showing 3-of-4 earnings beats, though the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 7% per 30 days.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Piotroski Financial Health→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Peg↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Wait for pullback to $81.65. At $86.24 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $81.65 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Negative momentum.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this... Read more
Wait for pullback to $81.65. At $86.24 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $81.65 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
Latest news
- NEWS Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Has $38.14 Million Stock Position in Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. $OLLI — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Purchases 72,781 Shares of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. $OLLI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Risk Assessment: Volatility, Financial Risk & Investment Risk - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS OLLI|Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc|Price:71.780|Chg%:+0.410 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS How The Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Story Is Shifting On Mixed Targets And 2026 Guidance - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $81.65. At $86.24 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $81.65 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $91.50 (+6.1%), stop $75.93 (−13.6%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $91.50 (+6.1% upside). Target $91.50 (+6.1%), stop $75.93 (−13.6%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $75.93.
Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
22 analysts cover OLLI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $102.
What does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings do?Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a...
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this through a flexible buying model that focuses on closeout merchandise and excess inventory from suppliers and manufacturers around the world.