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OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet HoldingsHold5.7·$83.55+6.70%
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $83.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this... Read more

$83.55+30.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#1 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.87%
Stop $77.79Target $109.20(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$121.33+45.2%15 analysts
$109.20our TP
$83.55price
$121.33mean
$152

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $83.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202677d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 31%
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA14.1
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE13.8%
Rev Growth14.2%
Beta0.46
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C96.09bearish
IV64%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On March 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") accepted Kevin McLain's notice of his planned retirement, which is effective May 1, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
1.8
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $73.61Resistance $84.94

Price Targets

$78
$109
A.Upside+30.7%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts22
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$121

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLLI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $83.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $109.20 (+30.7%), stop $77.79 (−7.4%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OLLI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $109.20 (+30.5% upside). Target $109.20 (+30.7%), stop $77.79 (−7.4%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $77.79.

What are the risks of investing in OLLI?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is OLLI overvalued or undervalued?

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OLLI?

22 analysts cover OLLI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $121.

What does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings do?Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a...

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this through a flexible buying model that focuses on closeout merchandise and excess inventory from suppliers and manufacturers around the world.

Related stocks: TBBB (BBB Foods Inc.) · DLTR (Dollar Tree, Inc.) · DG (Dollar General Corporation) · BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I) · PSMT (PriceSmart, Inc.)
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