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DGDollar General CorporationSell5.2·$106.42+2.62%
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Dollar General Corporation (DG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. At $106.42, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Dollar General is the largest US discount retailer by store count with 20,893 stores in 48 states and Mexico as of early 2026, targeting low-income consumers with everyday-low-price merchandise (typically $10 or less). Consumables represent 82% of net sales; approximately 75% of... Read more

$106.42+10.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#5 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.99%
IncomeYield2.21%(5y avg 1.62%)Payout33.38%sustainable
Stop $99.34Target $118.12(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$131.24+23.3%29 analysts
$118.12our TP
$106.42price
$131.24mean
$90
$175

Sell if holding. At $106.42, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202679d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.1
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$23.6B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE18.9%
Rev Growth3.4%
Beta0.26
Dividend2.21%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$74-30.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductConsumables82%
    10-K Item 1: 'Consumables| | 82.0| %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jerry Fleeman, age 52, hired as CEO-designate to succeed Todd Vasos effective January 1, 2027. Vasos continues as CEO until then and serves as Senior Advisor through April 2, 2027. Fleeman previously CEO of Ahold Delhaize USA.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $99.57Resistance $115.00

Price Targets

$99
$118
A.Upside+11.0%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $106.42, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $99.34. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.12 (+10.6% upside). Prior stop was $99.34. Stop-loss: $99.34.

What are the risks of investing in DG?

Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is DG overvalued or undervalued?

Dollar General Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.1 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DG?

39 analysts cover DG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $131.

What does Dollar General Corporation do?Dollar General is the largest US discount retailer by store count with 20,893 stores in 48 states and Mexico as of...

Dollar General is the largest US discount retailer by store count with 20,893 stores in 48 states and Mexico as of early 2026, targeting low-income consumers with everyday-low-price merchandise (typically $10 or less). Consumables represent 82% of net sales; approximately 75% of the U.S. population lives within five miles of a store.

Related stocks: OLLI (Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings) · TBBB (BBB Foods Inc.) · DLTR (Dollar Tree, Inc.) · BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I) · PSMT (PriceSmart, Inc.)
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