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DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.Sell5.5·$113.90-0.86%
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Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $113.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Dollar Tree operates approximately 9,000 discount retail stores across 48 states and DC and approximately 275 stores in Canada under a single banner, after completing the sale of Family Dollar in July 2025. The company sells everyday consumables and seasonal discretionary... Read more

$113.90+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#3 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.54%
Stop $106.02Target $114.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$125.00+9.7%24 analysts
$114.54our TP
$113.90price
$125.00mean
$85
$165

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $113.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 2, 202682d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.4
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$22.1B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE34.0%
Rev Growth7.2%
Beta0.66
DividendNone
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'Among our foreign suppliers, China is the source of the majority of our direct imports'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-23Item 1.02MEDIUM
    On March 19, 2026, Dollar Tree terminated a material definitive agreement (specific agreement not identified; body truncated). Simultaneously entered a new $500 million term loan with Bank of America, N.A., maturing March 19, 2029. No further reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
2.5
52w Position
6.0
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)8K FLAG 1.02Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $87.72Resistance $116.88

Price Targets

$106
$115
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-02 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DLTR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $113.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $106.02. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the DLTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $114.54 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $106.02. Stop-loss: $106.02.

What are the risks of investing in DLTR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Is DLTR overvalued or undervalued?

Dollar Tree, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DLTR?

35 analysts cover DLTR with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $125.

What does Dollar Tree, Inc. do?Dollar Tree operates approximately 9,000 discount retail stores across 48 states and DC and approximately 275 stores in...

Dollar Tree operates approximately 9,000 discount retail stores across 48 states and DC and approximately 275 stores in Canada under a single banner, after completing the sale of Family Dollar in July 2025. The company sells everyday consumables and seasonal discretionary merchandise at low price points — roughly 85% of products at $2.00 or less — with about 40% of merchandise imported, primarily from China.

Related stocks: OLLI (Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings) · TBBB (BBB Foods Inc.) · DG (Dollar General Corporation) · TGT (Target Corporation) · BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I)
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