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BHCBausch Health Companies Inc.Hold6.7·$5.92+26.50%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Bausch Health offers deep statistical value — a 1.2x forward P/E and approximately 7-to-1 risk/reward in the buyer's favor — but is in a confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross in place, mixed earnings execution, and extreme revenue concentration in a single product; the asymmetric setup favors patience for a catalyst rather than active accumulation into the breakdown.

Thesis pillars

  • Fcf Generation Cushions Gaap LossesStable
  • Product Concentration Binary RiskImproving
  • Deep Value Asymmetric UpsideDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Xifaxan® (85.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Arestin® (95.0%).

Bausch Health develops specialty pharmaceuticals and medical devices across five segments—Salix (GI/hepatology), International, Solta Medical, Diversified, and Bausch + Lomb (eye health)—marketed in approximately 90 countries. Revenues totaled $10,266 million in 2025; Xifaxan®... Read more

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield64.28%
Stop $5.61Target $6.35(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$7.30+23.3%5 analysts
$6.35our TP
$5.92price
$7.30mean
$6
$9

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Xifaxan® (85.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Arestin® (95.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31

Recent Developments — Bausch Health Companies Inc.

Generated 2026-07-31T02:43:37Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Xifaxan® (85.0%)
Concentration risk — Product: Arestin® (95.0%)
Thin upside margin: 5.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)1.1
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn-11.5%
ROE
Rev Growth11.7%
Beta0.42
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV93%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductXifaxan®85%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales of the Xifaxan® product line currently represent approximately 85% of the Salix segment revenues.'
  • HIGHProductArestin®95%
    10-K Item 1: 'Arestin® ... represents approximately 95% of Dentistry revenues'
  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of sources for finished products and raw materials
    10-K Item 1A: 'our dependence on a limited number of sources for certain of our finished products and raw materials'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
Gap
3.0
52w Position
3.9
Extreme gap up (6.2%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 8.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.33Resistance $6.07

Price Targets

$6
$6
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BHC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Xifaxan® (85.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Arestin® (95.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $6.35 (+7.3%), stop $5.61 (−5.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.35 (+5.3% upside). Target $6.35 (+7.3%), stop $5.61 (−5.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $5.61.

What are the risks of investing in BHC?

Concentration risk — Product: Xifaxan® (85.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Arestin® (95.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.3%.

Is BHC overvalued or undervalued?

Bausch Health Companies Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 1.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BHC?

8 analysts cover BHC with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Bausch Health Companies Inc. do?Bausch Health develops specialty pharmaceuticals and medical devices across five segments—Salix (GI/hepatology),...

Bausch Health develops specialty pharmaceuticals and medical devices across five segments—Salix (GI/hepatology), International, Solta Medical, Diversified, and Bausch + Lomb (eye health)—marketed in approximately 90 countries. Revenues totaled $10,266 million in 2025; Xifaxan® drives approximately 85% of Salix segment sales. The company holds approximately 88% of publicly traded Bausch + Lomb, which it is pursuing to separate.

Related stocks: IRWD (Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · ANIP (ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · INDV (Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.) · BCRX (BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
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