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BEPCBrookfield Renewable CorporatioSell4.8·$30.77-0.26%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock faces a convergence of three structural headwinds — business quality below the minimum acceptable floor, a death-cross technical setup with price below all moving averages, and three earnings misses in the past four quarters — that leave it poorly positioned for near-term recovery despite 8.5% headroom to the resistance target.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum FloorStable
  • Death Cross Falling Knife SetupStable
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Brookfield Renewable Corporatio (BEPC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueHigh Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Renewable

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.77 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Brookfield Renewable Corporation owns and operates a portfolio of renewable power and sustainable solution assets. The company's portfolio consists of hydroelectric, wind, utility-scale solar, distributed generation, pumped storage, carbon capture and storage, cogeneration,... Read more

$30.77+9.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#9 of 12 Utilities - Renewable
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield18.14%
IncomeYield5.10%(5y avg 4.26%)Payout108.09%at-risk
Stop $29.62Target $33.81(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$38.86+26.3%7 analysts
$33.81our TP
$30.77price
$38.86mean
$43

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.77 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-32.0
Mkt Cap$5.7B
EV/EBITDA17.4
Profit Mgn-102.3%
ROE-45.5%
Rev Growth13.0%
Beta1.16
Dividend5.10%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.7
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.8
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 5.1%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
4.5
Value Rank
5.5
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.54Resistance $36.03

Price Targets

$30
$34
A.Upside+9.9%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BEPC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.77 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $29.62. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the BEPC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.81 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $29.62. Stop-loss: $29.62.

What are the risks of investing in BEPC?

Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is BEPC overvalued or undervalued?

Brookfield Renewable Corporatio trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -32.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BEPC?

9 analysts cover BEPC with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $39.

What does Brookfield Renewable Corporatio do?Brookfield Renewable Corporation owns and operates a portfolio of renewable power and sustainable solution assets. The...

Brookfield Renewable Corporation owns and operates a portfolio of renewable power and sustainable solution assets. The company's portfolio consists of hydroelectric, wind, utility-scale solar, distributed generation, pumped storage, carbon capture and storage, cogeneration, biomass, and eFuels. Its operations consist of approximately 13,396 megawatts of installed hydroelectric, wind, utility-scale solar, and distributed energy and sustainable solutions capacity across North America, South America, and Europe. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Brookfield Renewable Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.

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