Energy Vault shows 104% year-over-year revenue growth and a 103% gap to the analyst target, but it burns cash at 51% of revenue, has missed earnings in 3 of 4 quarters, depends on few customers and is in a sharp downtrend.
Thesis pillars
- Rapid But Lumpy Revenue Growth→Stable
- Heavy Cash Burn→Stable
- Large Analyst Upside→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 18, 2026
Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Sector Rotation edge
Utilities · Utilities - Renewable
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.22: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality.
Energy Vault Holdings delivers gravity, battery and hydrogen-based energy storage systems and technology-agnostic management software to utilities, independent power producers and large energy users, while transitioning since 2024 toward selectively owning and operating storage... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.22: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.
About Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.
Energy Vault Holdings launched its Asset Vault platform in 2025 with a $300 million preferred equity commitment from Orion Infrastructure Capital, targeting approximately 1.5 gigawatts of owned energy storage capacity across the United States, Australia and Europe. The company placed its first two owned assets into commercial operation in 2025: the 57 MW/114 MWh Cross Trails battery system in Snyder, Texas, backed by a 10-year offtake agreement with power marketer Gridmatic, and the 8.5 MW hybrid hydrogen-battery Calistoga Resiliency Center in California, operated under a long-term services arrangement with Pacific Gas & Electric.
Energy Vault generates revenue from selling and licensing its B-VAULT battery, G-VAULT gravity and H-VAULT hydrogen-hybrid storage systems to third parties under EPC and engineered-equipment delivery models, supplemented by software licensing for its VaultOS energy management platform and long-term maintenance service contracts, while increasingly retaining ownership of storage assets to generate recurring cash flows through contracted offtake or merchant market participation. The company sources battery cells, modules and racks along with gravity-system components from third-party suppliers worldwide, with U.S. tariff policy on China-origin lithium-ion batteries and related components contributing to cost and availability volatility, though a February 2026 supply agreement with Peak Energy secured 1.5 gigawatt-hours of U.S.-manufactured sodium-ion battery systems. Energy Vault is also entering the AI infrastructure market through a framework agreement with Crusoe to develop modular powered-shell data centers, beginning with a phased deployment at its Snyder, Texas technology center.
Show full overview
Energy Vault depends on a limited number of customers for the majority of its revenue, and the loss of any one could substantially reduce revenue and strain liquidity, a risk compounded by the company's reliance on Inflation Reduction Act tax credits as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed July 4, 2025, which introduced new foreign-entity-of-concern ownership and sourcing restrictions that could disqualify certain projects or components from credit eligibility. The 10-K notes projects that began construction by December 31, 2024 remain grandfathered under the prior credit regime, but forthcoming Treasury and IRS guidance on domestic-content and prohibited-foreign-entity testing could affect the economics of Energy Vault's newer owned and third-party projects alike.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Renewable
From Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Citigroup Lowers Price Target for Energy Vault Holdings — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 negative
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Buy on Energy Vault Hldgs, Lowers Price Target to $4.75 — benzinga Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 12 Industrials Stocks Moving In Tuesday's After-Market Session — benzinga Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Energy Vault Raises FY26 Revenue Outlook To Top Half Of $270M-$310M Range Ahead Of November 10, 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Energy Vault Wins Approval For 125 MW / 1 GWh Stoney Creek Battery Energy Storage System, Targets Q4 2026 Construction A — benzinga Sep 29, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerlimited number of customers10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a limited number of customers for the majority of our revenue, and the loss of any one of these customers could substantially reduce our revenue and impact our liquidity.'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina-origin lithium-ion batteries and components10-K Item 1A: 'Changes in U.S. tariff policy applicable to China-origin lithium-ion batteries and related components increased volatility in the cost and availability of certain inputs used in our solutions'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Unprofitable operations — net margin -48.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Volatile — 7.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.22: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Prior stop was $2.99. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $5.18 (+60.9% upside). Prior stop was $2.99. Stop-loss: $2.99.
Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).
Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -23.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover NRGV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $6.
What does Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. do?Energy Vault Holdings delivers gravity, battery and hydrogen-based energy storage systems and technology-agnostic...
Energy Vault Holdings delivers gravity, battery and hydrogen-based energy storage systems and technology-agnostic management software to utilities, independent power producers and large energy users, while transitioning since 2024 toward selectively owning and operating storage assets through its Asset Vault platform. The company placed its first two owned projects, the 57 MW Cross Trails battery system in Texas and the hybrid Calistoga Resiliency Center in California, into commercial operation in 2025, backed by a $300 million preferred equity commitment from Orion Infrastructure Capital.