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AVPTAvePoint, Inc.Hold6.0·$13.37+1.83%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

This software infrastructure company delivers strong double-digit revenue growth and has beaten earnings three of the last four quarters with a favorable reward-to-risk profile at current prices, but heavy enterprise segment concentration and elevated leverage are meaningful offset risks while the technical picture remains in recovery mode.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth ProfileStable
  • Enterprise Concentration Leverage RiskImproving
  • Earnings Beat Track RecordStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.8%.

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The... Read more

$13.37+8.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#37 of 106 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.88%
Stop $12.43Target $14.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$16.71+25.0%13 analysts
$14.54our TP
$13.37price
$16.71mean
$26

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.8%. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202675d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.8
P/E (Fwd)27.0
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA46.4
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta1.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV60%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductEnterprise segment52%
    10-K Item 1: 'the Enterprise segment accounted for 52% of our total annual recurring revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
3.1
Support Resistance
3.1
52w Position
3.4

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.4
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.39Resistance $13.82

Price Targets

$12
$15
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVPT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.8%. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $14.54 (+8.8%), stop $12.43 (−7.6%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.54 (+8.8% upside). Target $14.54 (+8.8%), stop $12.43 (−7.6%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $12.43.

What are the risks of investing in AVPT?

Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum.

Is AVPT overvalued or undervalued?

AvePoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.8 (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AVPT?

20 analysts cover AVPT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does AvePoint, Inc. do?AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+...

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The Enterprise segment (>5,000 seats) drove 52% of total ARR at end of 2025, with ~6,000 channel partners handling most SMB and mid-market distribution.

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