AeroVironment is in a confirmed downtrend — below its falling 200-day moving average, with a death cross forming a hard technical block — and has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive recent quarters; despite 143% revenue growth and analyst targets implying 62% upside, the quality profile and momentum picture make this an avoid until fundamental and technical conditions materially improve.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Quality Well Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $153.40: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.01; Below-average business quality.
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS, space and directed-energy, and cyber/electronic-warfare capabilities across two segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy, following its... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $153.40: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.01; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment drew approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue from the U.S. government, including 35% from the Department of Defense directly, with foreign sales - 18% from Ukraine alone - making up much of the balance. On May 1, 2025 the company closed its acquisition of BlueHalo, adding roughly 150 issued U.S. patents to AeroVironment's own 353, and now operates two segments: Autonomous Systems, and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy.
AeroVironment sells uncrewed aircraft systems (Puma, Raven, JUMP 20), loitering munitions (Switchblade, Red Dragon), counter-UAS and electronic-warfare systems (Titan, Freedom Eagle), and, after the BlueHalo acquisition, space hardware, directed-energy weapons (Locust), laser communications, and cyber/OSINT services (HaloCortex), primarily to the U.S. Army, Marine Corps, Special Operations Command, and other DoD branches, plus allied governments through direct commercial or foreign military sales. Revenue comes from both production contracts and customer-funded R&D, supplemented by internally funded R&D aimed at expanding into adjacent defense and commercial markets. The company competes against much larger, better-resourced primes including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, L3Harris, and Anduril, as well as specialized players like Elbit Systems and Shield AI, and differentiates on rapid prototyping, lean manufacturing certified to ISO 9001:2015 and AS9100D, and close relationships with DoD decision-makers cultivated through its Strategic Advisory Group of retired senior military officials.
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A risk distinct from AeroVironment's revenue mix is exposure to U.S. government budget politics rather than program-level demand: the filing notes that in January 2026 the administration established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to review federal spending, and in February 2026 directed it to specifically review Pentagon spending for waste and fraud, adding uncertainty to the congressional appropriations AeroVironment depends on annually. Because roughly three-quarters of revenue flows through this single funding source - and BlueHalo's addition is expected to raise that share further in fiscal 2026 - a sustained pullback in defense appropriations would compress AeroVironment's revenue base more directly than competition from any single rival.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Benzinga Bulls and Bears: GameStop, Marvell, Robinhood — benzinga Sep 12, 2026 neutral
- NEWS S&P 500 Snaps 4-Day Decline as Oil Cools, Dell Jumps 11%: Stock Market Today — benzinga Sep 11, 2026 neutral
- NEWS AeroVironment Stock Drops, B of A Maintains Buy Rating — benzinga Sep 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS Stock Market Today: Nasdaq 100 Tumbles as Oil Spikes 6%, Yields Hit 19-Year High — benzinga Sep 10, 2026 negative
- NEWS Crude Oil Surges 6%; Macy’s Shares Fall After Q2 Results — benzinga Sep 10, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-14T22:12:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- MEDIUMCustomerDoD35%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 35% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025.'
- LOWGeographicUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'of which Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment appointed Sean Woodward as EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who is retiring; McDonnell remains through April 30, 2026 and continues in a non-officer transition role after.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUMAeroVironment appointed Robert Smith as EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell, who is retiring; Truesdell continues in an advisory/consulting role through the transition.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Brad Truesdell notified AeroVironment on March 12, 2026 of his intent to retire, remaining in role until a successor is appointed; the company began a search for a new principal operating officer (Robert Smith was named successor weeks later).SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $153.40: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.01; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $142.66. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $201.96 (+31.7% upside). Prior stop was $142.66. Stop-loss: $142.66.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 32.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $224.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS,...
AeroVironment is a defense technology provider delivering autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS, space and directed-energy, and cyber/electronic-warfare capabilities across two segments, Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy, following its May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo. The company sells primarily to the U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments, with the U.S. government representing approximately 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue - including 35% from the DoD directly - and foreign sales, including 18% from Ukraine, making up the remainder.