AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $171.08: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
AeroVironment delivers autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS technologies, space platforms, directed energy, and cyber capabilities to the U.S. DoD and allied governments, operating through Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segments... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $171.08: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
About AeroVironment, Inc.
AeroVironment generated revenue concentrated in U.S. government and foreign military customers during the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025, with sales to the U.S. government representing approximately 75% of revenue, the DoD accounting for 35%, and Ukraine contributing 18% of total sales. The company closed its acquisition of BlueHalo on May 1, 2025, adding Space, Cyber and Directed Energy as a second reportable segment alongside the legacy Autonomous Systems segment, and obtained an additional 150 issued U.S. patents, supplementing the 353 it held at April 30, 2025.
AeroVironment earns revenue from product sales, spare parts, and services to U.S. military branches including the Army, Marine Corps, Special Operations Command, Air Force, and Navy, plus foreign military sales through the DoD and direct commercial sales. The Autonomous Systems segment covers small and medium UAS (Puma, Raven, JUMP 20), loitering munitions (Switchblade 300, Switchblade 600, Red Dragon), and C-UAS systems (Titan family); the Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment — added through BlueHalo — covers digital beamforming antennas (Badger, Wasp), the Locust directed energy weapon system, and full-spectrum cyber operations. The U.S. Army generated approximately 20% of pre-BlueHalo revenue, placing orders on behalf of itself and several other DoD organizations. Competition in the UAS market includes Lockheed Martin Corporation, L3Harris Technologies, Inc., and Textron, Inc., among others.
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All contracts with the U.S. government are terminable at will, and the January 2025 establishment of DOGE introduced uncertainty around Pentagon spending priorities. Ukraine alone accounted for 18% of fiscal 2025 sales; the company notes it may receive future stop work orders or contract cancellations tied to shifting foreign military aid priorities, including the pause on U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, and cannot project the aggregate negative impact on results of operations from any such actions. Management expects the proportion of revenue from the DoD and other U.S. government agencies to increase in fiscal 2026 following the BlueHalo acquisition, deepening the existing government-customer concentration.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From AeroVironment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — AeroVironment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Reported Sunday, AeroVironment's Telerob Unveils TOM 50 RE Backpackable UGV At Eurosatory 2026 Featuring 360-Degree Infr — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS AeroVironment Inks MoU With Taiwan-Based Ubiqconn Technology Over Uncrewed Systems And Mission Management Capabilities — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS $100 Invested In AeroVironment 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS AeroVironment Plans To Invest $15M To Expand Advanced Production Capabilities In Greene County, Ohio, Near Dayton — benzinga Jun 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Kratos Defense (KTOS) Stock Is Trending As Trump Administration Eyes Equity Stakes In US Drone Makers — benzinga May 28, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government75%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the U.S. government, either as a prime contractor or subcontractor and inclusive of foreign military sales, represented approximately 75% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomerDoD35%10-K Item 1A: 'The DoD, our principal U.S. government customer, accounted for approximately 35% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2025'
- LOWCustomerU.S. Army20%10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 20% of our revenue from the U.S. Army pursuant to orders placed under contract by the U.S. Army'
- LOWCustomerUkraine18%10-K Item 1: 'Ukraine accounted for 18% of our total sales revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMSean Woodward appointed EVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who announced intent to retire July 31, 2026. McDonnell continues as CFO through April 30, then transitions to non-officer capacity to support handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOWRobert Smith appointed EVP and COO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Brad Truesdell, who is retiring. Truesdell will remain in advisory role through April 30, then serve as consultant for transition support.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMBrad Truesdell (EVP and COO) notified intent to retire effective upon appointment of successor, March 12, 2026. No successor named at time of filing; search underway. Truesdell to remain as principal operating officer until transition.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $171.08: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $158.64. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $278.89 (+63.5% upside). Prior stop was $158.64. Stop-loss: $158.64.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (75.0%); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).
AeroVironment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 42.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover AVAV with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $310.
What does AeroVironment, Inc. do?AeroVironment delivers autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS technologies, space platforms,...
AeroVironment delivers autonomous systems, precision strike munitions, counter-UAS technologies, space platforms, directed energy, and cyber capabilities to the U.S. DoD and allied governments, operating through Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segments following its May 2025 BlueHalo acquisition. U.S. government sales represented approximately 75% of revenue for fiscal year ended April 30, 2025, with the DoD at 35% and Ukraine contributing 18% of total sales.