Amcor shows 77% revenue growth year-over-year and recovering price momentum, but free cash flow is converting at only 22% of net income, business quality sits at the minimum-threshold floor, a put/call ratio of 3.17 signals elevated institutional hedging demand, and dual concentration in flexible packaging and developed markets limits diversification — the position warrants an exit until quality and cash conversion improve.
Thesis pillars
- Poor Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Product Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Elevated Options Hedging Demand↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. At $42.09, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%).
Amcor plc is a global leader in consumer packaging, producing flexible packaging, rigid packaging, cartons, and closures for nutrition, health, beauty, and wellness categories through its Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid... Read more
Sell if holding. At $42.09, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Amcor plc
About Amcor plc
Amcor's Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment generated approximately 72% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, with Global Rigid Packaging Solutions contributing the remaining 28%, following the April 30, 2025 merger with Berry Global Group. The combined company employed approximately 77,000 people across more than 400 facilities in over 35 countries and carried $14.1 billion of debt as of June 30, 2025. Developed markets accounted for approximately 75% of sales revenue.
Amcor manufactures flexible packaging (films, pouches, and laminates) and rigid packaging (containers, closures, and dispensing and pharma devices) sold to consumer-products companies across food, beverage, healthcare, and personal-care end markets, primarily through a direct sales force supported by product development engineers and field service technicians. Raw material inputs - polymer resins and films, paper, linerboard, aluminum, inks, and adhesives - are sourced from a variety of global suppliers, with contractual pricing mechanisms that generally let the company pass raw-material cost increases through to customers over time. Roughly $180 million a year is budgeted for research and development post-Merger, supporting a portfolio of more than 5,000 patents and patent applications across materials science and sustainable packaging design. The Berry Global combination added in-house recycling operations and expanded the rigid packaging and closures portfolio, while competitors include Ball Corporation, Crown Holdings, Sealed Air, Sonoco, and Silgan Holdings among others.
Show full overview
A risk distinct from Amcor's segment mix is customer consolidation: the filing states that while no single customer exceeds 10% of net sales, some of Amcor's customers have acquired companies with similar or complementary product lines in recent years, increasing the concentration of Amcor's business with those combined customers and creating pressure for lower prices as purchase volumes are aggregated. Layered on top of this is emerging-market exposure - about a quarter of sales - concentrated partly in Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, India, and Peru, jurisdictions the 10-K flags as having legal and regulatory systems that are dynamic and subject to change, distinct from the currency and tariff risk facing the developed-market majority of the business.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
From Amcor plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Amcor plc
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at Amcor PLC (AMCR) After 3.5% Gain -- GF Value $49.42 vs Price $47.45 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Amcor PLC stock rises Wednesday, outperforms market - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS Amcor stock extends 2026 rally as dividend and earnings upgrade support packaging giant - Ad-hoc-news.de — Ad-hoc-news.de positive
- NEWS Amcor (AMCR) Daily Price Brief: Posts a 0.72% Gain to $45.86 in the Latest Reading; Support and Resistance - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS Truist reiterates Amcor stock Buy rating, keeps $51 price target By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa positive
Generated 2026-09-14T08:32:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductGlobal Flexible Packaging Solutions segment72%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal year 2025, the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment accounted for approximately 72% of consolidated net sales.'
- HIGHGeographicdeveloped markets75%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our sales revenue came from developed markets and 25% came from emerging markets'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $42.09, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $41.00. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.66 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $41.00. Stop-loss: $41.00.
Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.2%.
Amcor plc trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $50.
What does Amcor plc do?Amcor plc is a global leader in consumer packaging, producing flexible packaging, rigid packaging, cartons, and...
Amcor plc is a global leader in consumer packaging, producing flexible packaging, rigid packaging, cartons, and closures for nutrition, health, beauty, and wellness categories through its Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions (28%) segments. The company employs approximately 77,000 people across more than 400 manufacturing and support facilities worldwide, following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global, and generated roughly 75% of fiscal 2025 sales from developed markets.