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AGCOAGCO CorporationHold5.7·$107.13-7.78%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AGCO has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 41% and trades at an attractively valued forward P/E of 13.9x, but below-average business quality, a stock sitting near its near-term resistance target, and a put/call ratio of 2.07 signal that institutional sentiment is more cautious than the earnings track record alone would imply.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Average Business QualityDeteriorating
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakImproving
  • Attractive Valuation For SectorImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $107.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Negative momentum.

Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to "AGCO," "we," "us" or the "Company" include AGCO Corporation and its subsidiaries.

$107.13+9.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 17 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.27%
IncomeYield0.97%(5y avg 0.91%)Payout11.19%sustainable
Stop $102.24Target $116.88(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$129.87+21.2%15 analysts
$116.88our TP
$107.13price
$129.87mean
$160

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $107.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.1%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.9
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn7.4%
ROE17.5%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta1.07
Dividend0.97%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.09bearish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Vol Acceleration
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weaknessVolume surge (2.8x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.62%=HEAVYNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $105.40Resistance $124.53

Price Targets

$102
$117
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 0.62%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGCO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $107.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $116.88 (+9.1%), stop $102.24 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $116.88 (+9.1% upside). Target $116.88 (+9.1%), stop $102.24 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $102.24.

What are the risks of investing in AGCO?

Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Negative momentum.

Is AGCO overvalued or undervalued?

AGCO Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.9 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AGCO?

21 analysts cover AGCO with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $130.

What does AGCO Corporation do?Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to...

Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in 1991. Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this Form 10-K to "AGCO," "we," "us" or the "Company" include AGCO Corporation and its subsidiaries.

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