AerCap presents a compelling combination of deep value — forward price-to-earnings of 8.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.20 — with an exceptional earnings track record of four consecutive beats averaging 32% above consensus, yet the stock trades within 1.8% of the analyst take-profit target with a 0.37-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio; the underlying business quality is high but the entry geometry is unfavorable at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Deep Value Attractive Multiple→Stable
- Breakout Technical Momentum→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — AerCap Holdings N.V.
Latest news
- NEWS AerCap Holdings NV (AER) Shares Fall 3.5% -- What GF Score of 80 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS AerCap Holdings N.V. 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:AER) 2026-07-29 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS AER Looks 19.4% Overvalued on GF Value™ as of July 29, 2026 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS AerCap: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - KTVB — KTVB positive
- NEWS AerCap: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - ktvb.com — ktvb.com neutral
Generated 2026-09-14T22:12:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $134.55. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $155.99 (+11.9% upside). Prior stop was $134.55. Stop-loss: $134.55.
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Weak growth.
AerCap Holdings N.V. trades at a P/E of 7.0 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover AER with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $179.
What does AerCap Holdings N.V. do?AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United...
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or sale; collecting rental and supplemental maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft and engine asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft and engines; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. In addition, the company provides corporate administrative services comprising accounting, and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements; and cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of companies. Further, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. The company has a portfolio of owned, managed, or on order aircraft, consisting of 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.