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AERAerCap Holdings N.V.Sell6.6·$140.00+1.52%
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AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.00 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or... Read more

$140.00+2.8% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-4.12%
IncomeYield1.14%Payout5.31%sustainable
Stop $133.46Target $143.98(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$165.50+18.2%8 analysts
$143.98our TP
$140.00price
$165.50mean
$175

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.00 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5
Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Material insider selling (13 sells, 0.09% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.1
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$22.1B
EV/EBITDA13.1
Profit Mgn45.2%
ROE22.1%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta0.94
Dividend1.14%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV50%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $132.20Resistance $143.17

Price Targets

$133
$144
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.8% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AER stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $140.00 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $133.46. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AER stock price target?

Take-profit target: $143.98 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $133.46. Stop-loss: $133.46.

What are the risks of investing in AER?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Material insider selling (13 sells, 0.09% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is AER overvalued or undervalued?

AerCap Holdings N.V. trades at a P/E of 6.1 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AER?

14 analysts cover AER with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $166.

What does AerCap Holdings N.V. do?AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United...

AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or sale; collecting rental and supplemental maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft and engine asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft and engines; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. In addition, the company provides corporate administrative services comprising accounting, and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements; and cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of companies. Further, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. The company has a portfolio of owned, managed, or on order aircraft, consisting of 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

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