Agree Realty runs a high-quality property portfolio with margins of 29%, free cash flow conversion of 203% of net income, and a Rule of 40 score of 78, but with only 2.2% headroom to the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.61, the setup favors patience over adding capital at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Thin Risk Reward At Target→Stable
- Dividend Sustainability Concern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Retail
Wait for pullback to $74.85. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $78.41. Engine's entry $74.85 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).
Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers;... Read more
Wait for pullback to $74.85. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $78.41. Engine's entry $74.85 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Agree Realty Corporation
About Agree Realty Corporation
Agree Realty's 2,674-property net lease retail portfolio, spanning all 50 states with 55.5 million square feet of GLA, was 99.7% leased at December 31, 2025, carrying a weighted average lease term of 7.8 years. Investment-grade-rated tenants or their parent entities generated 66.8% of annualized base rent. In fiscal 2025, the company deployed $1.57 billion across 305 property acquisitions and 21 completed developments, adding assets leased at a weighted average term of 11.5 years.
Agree Realty's NNN leases pass substantially all property operating expenses — real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance — to tenants, limiting landlord capital requirements. The three external growth platforms — direct acquisitions ($1.44 billion in fiscal 2025), the Developer Funding Platform partnering with developers during construction, and an in-house development program ($131.2 million in 2025 completions) — target e-commerce-resistant and recession-resistant tenant sectors. The tenant mix spans 29 sectors; grocery stores (10.3%), home improvement (9.0%), and convenience stores (7.7%) represent the largest sector concentrations of annualized base rent. Total debt at December 31, 2025 was $3.32 billion, comprising $2.61 billion of unsecured notes at a weighted average fixed rate of 4.05% and a 27.4% debt-to-enterprise-value ratio, with $42.9 million of secured mortgage debt at 3.67% fixed.
Show full overview
The $2.61 billion in unsecured notes carries a weighted average maturity of 5.9 years, with $320.5 million in revolving credit and commercial paper borrowings outstanding at year-end. The October 2024 ATM equity program carries 4.44 million forward shares outstanding with settlement required by dates between June 2026 and May 2027, representing a near-term dilution event alongside refinancing needs. No single tenant accounts for more than 10% of annualized base rent, capping individual credit exposure; however, single-tenant vacancy — if a tenant defaults — requires the company to bear all operating costs of that property until re-leased, a risk magnified by the build-to-suit nature of many properties.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Retail
From Agree Realty Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Agree Realty Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS ADC Therapeutics (NYSE:ADCT) Shares Up 11.8% - Still a Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Is ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) Stock Outpacing Its Medical Peers This Year? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Oak Thistle LLC Has $2.21 Million Stock Position in Agree Realty Corporation $ADC - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS ADC Therapeutics stock plunges on trial safety concerns - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Sequencing Strategies After Frontline ADC Therapy - OncLive — OncLive positive
Generated 2026-07-31T04:23:32Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWTenantgrocery stores sector10%10-K Item 1A: '10.3%, 9.0% and 7.7% of our annualized base rents were derived from tenants operating in the grocery stores, home improvement, and convenience store sectors, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $74.85. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $78.41. Engine's entry $74.85 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $80.16 (+2.2%), stop $71.76 (−9.3%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.16 (-2.7% upside). Target $80.16 (+2.2%), stop $71.76 (−9.3%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $71.76.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).
Agree Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 43.5 (forward 41.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
24 analysts cover ADC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $85.
What does Agree Realty Corporation do?Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA,...
Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers; 66.8% of annualized base rent derives from investment-grade-rated tenants.