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ADCAgree Realty CorporationSell6.0·$75.79+0.34%
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Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.79 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers;... Read more

$75.79+0.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.89%
IncomeYield4.24%(5y avg 4.21%)Payout168.00%
Stop $73.32Target $76.10(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$84.56+11.6%18 analysts
$76.10our TP
$75.79price
$84.56mean
$92

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.79 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Agree Realty Corporation

About Agree Realty Corporation

Agree Realty's 2,674-property net lease retail portfolio, spanning all 50 states with 55.5 million square feet of GLA, was 99.7% leased at December 31, 2025, carrying a weighted average lease term of 7.8 years. Investment-grade-rated tenants or their parent entities generated 66.8% of annualized base rent. In fiscal 2025, the company deployed $1.57 billion across 305 property acquisitions and 21 completed developments, adding assets leased at a weighted average term of 11.5 years.

Agree Realty's NNN leases pass substantially all property operating expenses — real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance — to tenants, limiting landlord capital requirements. The three external growth platforms — direct acquisitions ($1.44 billion in fiscal 2025), the Developer Funding Platform partnering with developers during construction, and an in-house development program ($131.2 million in 2025 completions) — target e-commerce-resistant and recession-resistant tenant sectors. The tenant mix spans 29 sectors; grocery stores (10.3%), home improvement (9.0%), and convenience stores (7.7%) represent the largest sector concentrations of annualized base rent. Total debt at December 31, 2025 was $3.32 billion, comprising $2.61 billion of unsecured notes at a weighted average fixed rate of 4.05% and a 27.4% debt-to-enterprise-value ratio, with $42.9 million of secured mortgage debt at 3.67% fixed.

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The $2.61 billion in unsecured notes carries a weighted average maturity of 5.9 years, with $320.5 million in revolving credit and commercial paper borrowings outstanding at year-end. The October 2024 ATM equity program carries 4.44 million forward shares outstanding with settlement required by dates between June 2026 and May 2027, representing a near-term dilution event alongside refinancing needs. No single tenant accounts for more than 10% of annualized base rent, capping individual credit exposure; however, single-tenant vacancy — if a tenant defaults — requires the company to bear all operating costs of that property until re-leased, a risk magnified by the build-to-suit nature of many properties.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Retail

From Agree Realty Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.8
P/E (Fwd)38.7
Mkt Cap$9.1B
EV/EBITDA19.9
Profit Mgn29.3%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth18.7%
Beta0.48
Dividend4.24%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWTenantgrocery stores sector10%
    10-K Item 1A: '10.3%, 9.0% and 7.7% of our annualized base rents were derived from tenants operating in the grocery stores, home improvement, and convenience store sectors, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.1
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
8.7
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.22Resistance $76.33

Price Targets

$73
$76
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.4% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.79 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $73.32. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.10 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $73.32. Stop-loss: $73.32.

What are the risks of investing in ADC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is ADC overvalued or undervalued?

Agree Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 40.8 (forward 38.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADC?

24 analysts cover ADC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $85.

What does Agree Realty Corporation do?Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA,...

Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers; 66.8% of annualized base rent derives from investment-grade-rated tenants.

Related stocks: EPRT (Essential Properties Realty Tru) · FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust) · NTST (NetSTREIT Corp.) · SKT (Tanger Inc.) · BFS (Saul Centers, Inc.)
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