Agree Realty runs a high-quality property portfolio with margins of 29%, free cash flow conversion of 203% of net income, and a Rule of 40 score of 78, but with only 2.2% headroom to the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.61, the setup favors patience over adding capital at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Flow Quality↑Improving
- Thin Risk Reward At Target↑Improving
- Dividend Sustainability Concern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Real Estate · REIT - Retail
Sell if holding. At $66.22, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers;... Read more
Sell if holding. At $66.22, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Agree Realty Corporation
About Agree Realty Corporation
Agree Realty's 2,674-property net lease retail portfolio, spanning all 50 states with 55.5 million square feet of GLA, was 99.7% leased at December 31, 2025, carrying a weighted average lease term of 7.8 years. Investment-grade-rated tenants or their parent entities generated 66.8% of annualized base rent. In fiscal 2025, the company deployed $1.57 billion across 305 property acquisitions and 21 completed developments, adding assets leased at a weighted average term of 11.5 years.
Agree Realty's NNN leases pass substantially all property operating expenses — real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance — to tenants, limiting landlord capital requirements. The three external growth platforms — direct acquisitions ($1.44 billion in fiscal 2025), the Developer Funding Platform partnering with developers during construction, and an in-house development program ($131.2 million in 2025 completions) — target e-commerce-resistant and recession-resistant tenant sectors. The tenant mix spans 29 sectors; grocery stores (10.3%), home improvement (9.0%), and convenience stores (7.7%) represent the largest sector concentrations of annualized base rent. Total debt at December 31, 2025 was $3.32 billion, comprising $2.61 billion of unsecured notes at a weighted average fixed rate of 4.05% and a 27.4% debt-to-enterprise-value ratio, with $42.9 million of secured mortgage debt at 3.67% fixed.
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The $2.61 billion in unsecured notes carries a weighted average maturity of 5.9 years, with $320.5 million in revolving credit and commercial paper borrowings outstanding at year-end. The October 2024 ATM equity program carries 4.44 million forward shares outstanding with settlement required by dates between June 2026 and May 2027, representing a near-term dilution event alongside refinancing needs. No single tenant accounts for more than 10% of annualized base rent, capping individual credit exposure; however, single-tenant vacancy — if a tenant defaults — requires the company to bear all operating costs of that property until re-leased, a risk magnified by the build-to-suit nature of many properties.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Retail
From Agree Realty Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Agree Realty Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Agree Realty Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $79.47, Implies 18% Upside - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Agree Realty: 7.3% Acquisitions, $75 Equity, And A $67 Stock - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Agree Realty Stock: 7.3% Acquisitions, $75 Equity, And A $67 Stock (NYSE:ADC) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS ADC Therapeutics (NYSE:ADCT) Shares Up 11.8% - Still a Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Is ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) Stock Outpacing Its Medical Peers This Year? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWTenantgrocery stores sector10%10-K Item 1A: '10.3%, 9.0% and 7.7% of our annualized base rents were derived from tenants operating in the grocery stores, home improvement, and convenience store sectors, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
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Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $66.22, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $63.50. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $69.98 (+5.7% upside). Prior stop was $63.50. Stop-loss: $63.50.
Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Below 200-day MA.
Agree Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 34.1 (forward 33.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover ADC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $78.
What does Agree Realty Corporation do?Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA,...
Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers; 66.8% of annualized base rent derives from investment-grade-rated tenants.