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EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruSell5.9·$30.55+1.77%
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Essential Properties Realty Tru (EPRT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed REIT that acquires and manages single-tenant net-leased properties for middle-market service and experience-based businesses across 48 states. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 2,300 properties with $555M annualized base... Read more

$30.55+8.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.56%
IncomeYield4.26%(5y avg 4.07%)Payout96.06%
Stop $29.55Target $33.39(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$37.10+21.4%20 analysts
$33.39our TP
$30.55price
$37.10mean
$40

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.9%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)21.4
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn43.5%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth22.8%
Beta0.90
Dividend4.26%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Texas (12.7%), Florida (7.4%), Georgia (6.5%), Ohio (5.4%) and Wisconsin (4.6%)'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    CFO Robert W. Salisbury's employment agreement terms disclosed via 8-K/A. He was previously appointed effective January 1, 2026; agreement provides $475K base salary, 125% target bonus, and term through May 7, 2030.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.46Resistance $31.60

Price Targets

$30
$33
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EPRT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $29.55. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EPRT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.39 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $29.55. Stop-loss: $29.55.

What are the risks of investing in EPRT?

Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum.

Is EPRT overvalued or undervalued?

Essential Properties Realty Tru trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EPRT?

26 analysts cover EPRT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Essential Properties Realty Tru do?Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed REIT that acquires and manages single-tenant net-leased...

Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed REIT that acquires and manages single-tenant net-leased properties for middle-market service and experience-based businesses across 48 states. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 2,300 properties with $555M annualized base rent and 99.7% occupancy, with no single tenant exceeding 3.4% of ABR.

Related stocks: ADC (Agree Realty Corporation) · FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust) · BFS (Saul Centers, Inc.) · SKT (Tanger Inc.) · GTY (Getty Realty Corporation)
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