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ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.Sell6.3·$22.09-0.02%
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and... Read more

$22.09+18.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield20.87%
IncomeYield3.12%Payout40.95%sustainable
Stop $21.37Target $26.15(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$29.05+31.5%18 analysts
$26.15our TP
$22.09price
$29.05mean
$33

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 18, 202670d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Outperforming peers
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.1
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$16.9B
EV/EBITDA0.6
Profit Mgn17.9%
ROE14.9%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta-0.22
Dividend3.12%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$15-32.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.4
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.4
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.03Resistance $25.11

Price Targets

$21
$26
A.Upside+18.4%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-18 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZTO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $21.37. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ZTO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.15 (+18.4% upside). Prior stop was $21.37. Stop-loss: $21.37.

What are the risks of investing in ZTO?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ZTO?

20 analysts cover ZTO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.

What does ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. do?ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic...

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Related stocks: PBI (Pitney Bowes Inc.) · FDX (FedEx Corporation) · GXO (GXO Logistics, Inc.) · EXPD (Expeditors International of Was) · JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services, I)
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