Landstar System generates free cash flow at 148% of net income and carries a strong financial health score, but the stock sits just below its resistance ceiling with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.32 to 1, back-to-back earnings misses in the two most recent periods before the latest quarter, and elevated put-to-call positioning — the setup favors watching rather than buying.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Cash Conversion Thin Margins→Stable
- Inconsistent Earnings Delivery↑Improving
- Unattractive Risk Reward Geometry↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Landstar System, Inc. was incorporated in January 1991 under the laws of the State of Delaware and has been a publicly held company since its initial public offering in March 1993. The principal executive offices of Landstar System, Inc. (collectively with its subsidiaries and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 22, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Landstar System, Inc.
About Landstar System, Inc.
Landstar System generated $4.7 billion in consolidated revenue during fiscal year 2025, with truck transportation accounting for 91% of that total and BCO Independent Contractors and Truck Brokerage Carriers contributing 38% and 53% of revenue, respectively. The company operates through two segments — transportation logistics and insurance — and provides services principally throughout the United States and cross-border into Canada and Mexico through a network of approximately 960 independent commission sales agents linked to over 70,000 third-party capacity providers.
Landstar earns revenue on a per-shipment basis by matching shipper demand with independent capacity, keeping asset investment limited to a fleet of roughly 17,400 trailers used primarily by BCO Independent Contractors. Agents earn commissions tied contractually to revenue or margin, and the 457 Million Dollar Agents who each generated at least $1 million in fiscal 2025 collectively represented 95% of consolidated revenue. Two agencies alone accounted for approximately 21% of consolidated revenue, a structural concentration the 10-K describes explicitly as a material risk. The customer base is broader: no single customer exceeded 8% of 2025 revenue, and the top 100 customers together represented 46% of total revenue. Competitors for agent relationships include other asset-light brokers; competitors for BCO Independent Contractors include asset-heavy truckload carriers.
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Landstar's freight cycle exposure is acute because a significant portion of truckload services is priced in the spot market over irregular routes, making revenue per load the primary lever for BCO Independent Contractor retention — the 10-K notes that sequential strengthening or weakening of revenue per load historically has had a significant impact on BCO Independent Contractor turnover. Two of its largest agencies conduct administrative operations in Ukraine, where the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted staffing and infrastructure. If either agency suffers material operational disruption, the concentration risk embedded in that 21% combined revenue share could weigh on Landstar's results in ways that the company's broad customer diversification would not offset.
See also: Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
From Landstar System, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 24, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Landstar System, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Landstar System, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $196.5, Implies 6% Upside - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS Landstar System, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $197.93, Implies 7% Upside - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Is Landstar System Inc (LSTR) Overvalued After Q2 Earnings Miss? - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Landstar System, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $186.4, Implies 10% Upside - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS Landstar System Q3 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $138.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 22, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $133.98. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $163.01 (+17.4% upside). Prior stop was $133.98. Stop-loss: $133.98.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Landstar System, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.4 (forward 18.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover LSTR with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $181.
What does Landstar System, Inc. do?Landstar System, Inc. was incorporated in January 1991 under the laws of the State of Delaware and has been a publicly...
Landstar System, Inc. was incorporated in January 1991 under the laws of the State of Delaware and has been a publicly held company since its initial public offering in March 1993. The principal executive offices of Landstar System, Inc. (collectively with its subsidiaries and other affiliated companies referred to herein as "Landstar" or the "Company," unless the context otherwise requires) is located at 13410 Sutton Park Drive South, Jacksonville, Florida 32224 and its telephone number is (...