Expeditors International has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 14% above consensus, underpinned by strong capital returns including a 37% return on equity, but the stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 24 times earnings with a PEG ratio near 3.75 and barely 1.2% upside to the near-term resistance target — the technical momentum is constructive but the risk/reward at current prices does not favor new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Sustained Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Premium Valuation No Asymmetry→Stable
- Strong Capital Returns→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Expeditors International of Was (EXPD) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $197.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away).
Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight (36% of 2025 revenues), ocean freight (25%), and customs brokerage/other services (39%) through 172 district offices. Revenue comes from the spread between carrier buy rates and customer... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $197.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Expeditors International of Was
About Expeditors International of Was
Customs brokerage and other services generated 39% of Expeditors International's total revenues in 2025, with airfreight accounting for 36% and ocean freight for 25%, reflecting a shift from 2024 when ocean freight represented 30% of revenues. The company operates 172 district offices spanning Americas (70), Europe (45), Middle East/Africa/India (24), North Asia (17), and South Asia (16), employing approximately 20,000 people with no owned aircraft or ships. Exports from China and Hong Kong contributed 19% of total revenues in 2025.
Expeditors earns revenue primarily from the margin between carrier buy rates and customer sell rates, supplemented by fees for customs documentation, packing, insurance, and delivery arrangement. In airfreight consolidation, the company aggregates individual shipments, purchases cargo capacity from airlines at volume discounts, and resells space at rates below what shippers could negotiate individually. Ocean freight pricing uses a mix of fixed annual contracts and spot-market arrangements at the regional level. Personnel costs represent the single largest expense and are inherently sticky in the near term, exposing quarterly results to sudden demand shifts. The company competes against firms with significantly greater resources; the primary competitive factors cited are price and service quality. Expeditors differentiates on its proprietary, internally developed enterprise technology platform — a core function the company explicitly does not outsource.
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Expeditors' revenue is particularly exposed to U.S.-China trade flows, with exports from China and Hong Kong contributing 19% of total revenues in 2025, down from 22% in 2024. The 10-K identifies this lane as susceptible to tariff disputes and notes that the United States undertook a 'substantial global tariff rebalancing effort' resulting in significantly higher tariffs on Chinese goods, with retaliatory measures from China and Canada following. If these conditions produce a significant or prolonged decline in international trade volumes, the company's results could be adversely affected, though the 10-K acknowledges some volume is shifting to alternative routes as customers seek to mitigate China-specific tariff exposure.
See also: Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
From Expeditors International of Was's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Expeditors International of Was
Latest news
- NEWS Renaissance Technologies LLC Acquires 79,800 Shares of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. $EXPD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS EXPD|Expeditors International of Washington Inc|Price:165.940|Chg%:-4.190 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS EXPD|Expeditors International of Washington Inc|Price:165.940|Chg%:-4.190 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com negative
- NEWS Expeditors International of Washington Inc (EXPD) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Expeditors to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicChina and Hong Kong exports19%10-K Item 1A: 'we generated 19% and 22% of our revenues and 15% and 17% of our operating income in 2025 and 2024, respectively, on exports from China and Hong Kong'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $197.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $163.32 reached (−17.2%), stop $189.15 (−4.2%), A.R:R -2.8:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $163.32 reached (−17.2% from $197.15); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $163.32 reached (−17.2%), stop $189.15 (−4.2%), A.R:R -2.8:1. Stop-loss: $189.15.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Expeditors International of Was trades at a P/E of 28.7 (forward 24.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover EXPD with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $181.
What does Expeditors International of Was do?Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight (36% of 2025 revenues),...
Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight (36% of 2025 revenues), ocean freight (25%), and customs brokerage/other services (39%) through 172 district offices. Revenue comes from the spread between carrier buy rates and customer sell rates plus ancillary service fees, with approximately 20,000 employees and no owned aircraft or ships.