Value
4.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.8 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.9x
- ▸PEG: 2.44
WM · Why this verdict
Why Waste Management (WM) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Waste Management is a high-quality business with a 30% return on equity and top-tier peer ranking on quality, but the stock has only 6.2% upside to analyst targets, two recent earnings misses, and sits below its 200-day moving average, leaving insufficient margin of safety at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Waste Management generates a 30% return on equity, which ranks it in the top tier among industry peers and reflects the company's ability to compound shareholder value through its essential-service franchise in waste collection and disposal. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 25% over the next 12 months, confirming the business continues to generate above-average capital returns. | →Stable |
| CounterThe elevated return on equity is partly a function of significant financial leverage at a debt-to-equity ratio near 2.3, which amplifies both returns and downside risk if volumes or pricing soften. | ||
With only 6.2% upside to the analyst consensus target near $230, the stock offers limited near-term appreciation potential relative to its 4-5% downside risk, producing a risk-reward ratio below the minimum threshold of 1.5 for new entries. Bear case | Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 15% over 12 months, reopening a meaningful upside gap above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterA stable essential-service business with consistent dividend payments may simply be fairly valued at this price level, and modest upside is still acceptable for income-oriented investors. | ||
Waste Management has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including two consecutive misses in October 2025 and January 2026, raising questions about near-term earnings execution. Earnings | Earnings delivery improves over the next 12 months, with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters showing positive earnings surprises. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe misses were minor at negative 0.9% and negative 1.6%, and the average quarterly surprise across all 4 periods remained positive, suggesting the miss pattern is narrow rather than structural. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, though the moving average slope remains slightly positive, suggesting the pullback may be temporary rather than a confirmed long-term downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims and sustains above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, restoring the primary uptrend signal. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA stock sitting below its 200-day moving average after 2 consecutive earnings misses faces compounding headwinds; institutional investors may reduce exposure until a clear re-entry signal emerges. | ||
Waste Management generates a 30% return on equity, which ranks it in the top tier among industry peers and reflects the company's ability to compound shareholder value through its essential-service franchise in waste collection and disposal.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 25% over the next 12 months, confirming the business continues to generate above-average capital returns.
CounterThe elevated return on equity is partly a function of significant financial leverage at a debt-to-equity ratio near 2.3, which amplifies both returns and downside risk if volumes or pricing soften.
With only 6.2% upside to the analyst consensus target near $230, the stock offers limited near-term appreciation potential relative to its 4-5% downside risk, producing a risk-reward ratio below the minimum threshold of 1.5 for new entries.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 15% over 12 months, reopening a meaningful upside gap above 10%.
CounterA stable essential-service business with consistent dividend payments may simply be fairly valued at this price level, and modest upside is still acceptable for income-oriented investors.
Waste Management has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including two consecutive misses in October 2025 and January 2026, raising questions about near-term earnings execution.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings delivery improves over the next 12 months, with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters showing positive earnings surprises.
CounterThe misses were minor at negative 0.9% and negative 1.6%, and the average quarterly surprise across all 4 periods remained positive, suggesting the miss pattern is narrow rather than structural.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, though the moving average slope remains slightly positive, suggesting the pullback may be temporary rather than a confirmed long-term downtrend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims and sustains above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, restoring the primary uptrend signal.
CounterA stock sitting below its 200-day moving average after 2 consecutive earnings misses faces compounding headwinds; institutional investors may reduce exposure until a clear re-entry signal emerges.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $585,335 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.7 |
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.34
Upside
-2.4%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.3 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.9, Peer rank at 3.9, and Growth at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.34 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 20% in any reported fiscal year, signaling the business quality advantage is eroding.
- P2Thin Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst price target falls below $220, reducing upside to less than 2% from the current $216.94.
- P3Recent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -3% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the miss pattern has become structural.
- P4Below 200ma Momentum Weakness
Trip ifStock price drops below $200, more than 7% below the current $216.94, signaling the 200-day moving average cross has become a confirmed downtrend.