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WWayfair Inc.Sell5.3·$71.34+6.24%
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Wayfair Inc. (W) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.34: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 14.99; Below-average business quality.

Wayfair is an e-commerce home goods retailer operating under Wayfair, AllModern, Birch Lane, Joss & Main, and Perigold brands, serving 21 million active customers with over 40 million products from ~20,000 suppliers; 12 physical retail stores complement the digital platform. The... Read more

$71.34+18.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 18 Internet Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.39%
Stop $66.35Target $84.25(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$93.61+31.2%28 analysts
$84.25our TP
$71.34price
$93.61mean
$60
$144

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.34: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 14.99; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. segment (88.0%)
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)18.0
Mkt Cap$8.9B
EV/EBITDA45.9
Profit Mgn-2.4%
ROE
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta3.02
DividendNone
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C14.99bearish
IV80%elevated
Max Pain$45-36.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicU.S. segment88%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net revenue of the U.S. segment represented 88% of consolidated net revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Volatile — 6.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
0.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
6.8
High short interest: 20%Elevated put/call: 14.99High IV: 80%Above max pain $45Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.2
Roa
2.0
Gross Margin
2.0
Current Ratio
3.1
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
8.9
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.9
Support Resistance
2.5
Bollinger
3.0
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
2.8
Value Rank
5.9
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $55.60Resistance $76.70

Price Targets

$66
$84
A.Upside+18.1%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is W stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.34: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 14.99; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $66.35. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the W stock price target?

Take-profit target: $84.25 (+18.1% upside). Prior stop was $66.35. Stop-loss: $66.35.

What are the risks of investing in W?

Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. segment (88.0%); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is W overvalued or undervalued?

Wayfair Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about W?

40 analysts cover W with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Wayfair Inc. do?Wayfair is an e-commerce home goods retailer operating under Wayfair, AllModern, Birch Lane, Joss & Main, and Perigold...

Wayfair is an e-commerce home goods retailer operating under Wayfair, AllModern, Birch Lane, Joss & Main, and Perigold brands, serving 21 million active customers with over 40 million products from ~20,000 suppliers; 12 physical retail stores complement the digital platform. The U.S. segment drives 88% of consolidated revenue; the company exited the German market in January 2025.

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