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CARTMaplebear Inc.Sell6.1·$42.34-0.21%
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Maplebear Inc. (CART) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. At $42.34, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Concentration risk — Customer: retail partners.

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) is a grocery technology and enablement platform serving 2,200+ retail banners across North America, reaching over 98% of households. Revenue comes from transaction fees on grocery delivery/pickup orders, Instacart Ads serving 9,000+ active brands, and... Read more

$42.34+6.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 18 Internet Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.26%
Stop $39.41Target $45.00(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$50.00+18.1%27 analysts
$45.00our TP
$42.34price
$50.00mean
$37
$69

Sell if holding. At $42.34, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Concentration risk — Customer: retail partners. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Maplebear Inc.

About Maplebear Inc.

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) powered more than 1.6 billion grocery orders since founding, reaching over 98% of North American households through more than 2,200 retail banners at December 31, 2025. Net income reached $447 million in 2025 across three revenue channels — Marketplace transaction fees, Instacart Ads advertising, and Instacart+ subscriptions — with approximately 3,600 full-time employees and about 600,000 active shoppers enabling fulfillment.

Instacart earns transaction revenue on each Marketplace order placed through its app or website, where customers shop from partnered retailers for delivery or pickup. The Instacart+ membership, which offers unlimited $0 delivery fees above a basket minimum, drives repeat order frequency and is actively promoted as a conversion target for first-time customers. The Ads business uses first-party transaction data to sell Sponsored Products, display ads, coupons, and brand pages to more than 9,000 active brand advertisers, with fourth-quarter advertising spend historically elevated due to brand budget concentration. The Enterprise platform licenses end-to-end technology — including e-commerce storefronts powering more than 380 grocers, fulfillment APIs, Connected Stores hardware such as Caper Carts and Carrot Tags, and retail media tools — to grocery partners. Shopper fulfillment is performed by independent contractors; Proposition 22 in California mandates minimum earnings and healthcare subsidies for these workers, and several other states have adopted or may adopt similar requirements, increasing compliance costs.

Show full overview

Instacart's independent contractor classification for shoppers faces ongoing legal and regulatory challenge across federal, state, and municipal jurisdictions. Proposition 22 in California requires minimum earnings and healthcare subsidy payments, already increasing the company's costs in that state; the 10-K notes that other states have and may continue to adopt similar legislation requiring compensation and benefits for delivery workers, and administrative actions and government investigations challenging contractor status are described as continuing. If shoppers are reclassified as employees, wage, benefit, and overhead obligations could materially change the fulfillment economics of the Marketplace model.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

From Maplebear Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: retail partners
Thin upside margin: 6.2%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn12.6%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth13.6%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$25-41.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerretail partners
    10-K Item 1A: 'The success of our business is dependent on our relationships with retailers. The loss of one or more of our retail partners or reduction in their engagement with Instacart could harm our business.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
1.8
52w Position
5.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.99Resistance $43.33

Price Targets

$39
$45
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CART stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $42.34, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Concentration risk — Customer: retail partners. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $39.41. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CART stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.00 (+6.2% upside). Prior stop was $39.41. Stop-loss: $39.41.

What are the risks of investing in CART?

Concentration risk — Customer: retail partners; Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is CART overvalued or undervalued?

Maplebear Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CART?

40 analysts cover CART with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Maplebear Inc. do?Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) is a grocery technology and enablement platform serving 2,200+ retail banners across North...

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) is a grocery technology and enablement platform serving 2,200+ retail banners across North America, reaching over 98% of households. Revenue comes from transaction fees on grocery delivery/pickup orders, Instacart Ads serving 9,000+ active brands, and enterprise platform licensing to retailers. The platform connects approximately 600,000 shoppers with retailers and consumers.

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