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VSECVSE CorporationHold5.9·$196.13+1.54%
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VSE Corporation (VSEC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%); Elevated risk factors.

VSE Corporation is a provider of aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for commercial, business, and general aviation operators globally through its single Aviation segment, with ~1,600 employees. Revenue comes from parts supply, distribution, and component and engine... Read more

$196.13+12.2% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#7 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.00%
IncomeYield0.20%(5y avg 0.58%)Payout13.84%sustainable
Stop $182.40Target $220.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$252.88+28.9%8 analysts
$220.00our TP
$196.13price
$252.88mean
$270

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%)
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)67.9
P/E (Fwd)34.2
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA25.9
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE3.8%
Rev Growth26.8%
Beta1.25
Dividend0.20%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.16bearish
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerCustomer Group20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company has material customer concentration within its business operations. A group of affiliated customers under common ownership (the "Customer Group") collectively accounted for approximately 20% of the Company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.8
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.9
Value Rank
3.7
Growth Rank
7.3
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $156.22Resistance $199.51

Price Targets

$182
$220
A.Upside+12.2%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VSEC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $220.00 (+12.2%), stop $182.40 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VSEC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $220.00 (+12.2% upside). Target $220.00 (+12.2%), stop $182.40 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $182.40.

What are the risks of investing in VSEC?

Concentration risk — Customer: Customer Group (20.0%); Elevated risk factors.

Is VSEC overvalued or undervalued?

VSE Corporation trades at a P/E of 67.9 (forward 34.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VSEC?

15 analysts cover VSEC with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $253.

What does VSE Corporation do?VSE Corporation is a provider of aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for commercial, business, and general...

VSE Corporation is a provider of aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for commercial, business, and general aviation operators globally through its single Aviation segment, with ~1,600 employees. Revenue comes from parts supply, distribution, and component and engine accessory repair for airlines, cargo carriers, MRO integrators, and business aviation customers.

Related stocks: VVX (V2X, Inc.) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.) · HEI-A (Heico Corporation) · HEI (Heico Corporation) · LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.)
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