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MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationSell5.2·$263.58+1.06%
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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $263.58 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.3% away).

Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company operating approximately 3.0M bpd of crude oil refining capacity across Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. It also owns ~64% of MPLX LP (midstream) and produces renewable diesel;... Read more

$263.58+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#11 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.57%
IncomeYield1.48%(5y avg 2.34%)Payout25.15%sustainable
Stop $245.64Target $267.01(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$268.17+1.7%18 analysts
$267.01our TP
$263.58price
$268.17mean
$186
$344

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $263.58 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.3% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.4
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$76.9B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn3.4%
ROE27.5%
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta0.52
Dividend1.48%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.31bearish
IV61%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 1.02MEDIUM
    MPC terminated its 2022 Revolving Credit Agreement on April 7, 2026, replacing it with a new $5B five-year revolving credit facility. No borrowings were outstanding at termination.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-13Item 1.01LOW
    MPC entered into a new $5B five-year revolving credit agreement on April 7, 2026 (matures April 7, 2031) for general corporate purposes. Replaces the 2022 credit agreement; no borrowings outstanding.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-13Item 2.03LOW
    Creation of direct financial obligation: $5B unsecured revolving credit facility entered April 7, 2026, maturing April 7, 2031, for general corporate purposes. No amounts drawn at signing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVE8K FLAG 1.02Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $241.36Resistance $272.46

Price Targets

$246
$267
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.4% upside)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $263.58 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $245.64. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $267.01 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $245.64. Stop-loss: $245.64.

What are the risks of investing in MPC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.3% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Is MPC overvalued or undervalued?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MPC?

25 analysts cover MPC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $268.

What does Marathon Petroleum Corporation do?Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company operating approximately 3.0M bpd of...

Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company operating approximately 3.0M bpd of crude oil refining capacity across Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. It also owns ~64% of MPLX LP (midstream) and produces renewable diesel; refined products are sold to ~7,882 Marathon-branded outlets and wholesale customers.

Related stocks: SUN (Sunoco LP) · DINO (HF Sinclair Corporation) · VLO (Valero Energy Corporation) · PSX (Phillips 66)
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