U.S. Physical Therapy offers 24% upside to analyst consensus targets and converts free cash flow at 124% of net income, but the company falls just below the $1 billion minimum market cap threshold for this investable universe, and a confirmed price downtrend combined with extremely elevated put-to-call options activity creates a difficult entry environment.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Target Upside↑Improving
- Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Downtrend Below 200ma→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
U.S. Physical Therapy operates through two segments: physical therapy clinics providing orthopedic, sports-injury, and worker rehabilitation services, and an industrial injury prevention (IIP) segment contracting directly with employers, including Fortune 500 companies. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
About U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
U.S. Physical Therapy owned and/or managed 780 clinics across 44 states at December 31, 2025, generating $650.4 million in net patient revenue, up from $560.6 million in 2024. Managed care and commercial health insurance supplied 48.5% of net patient revenue and Medicare/Medicaid another 35.8%, with workers' compensation insurance contributing 10.2%. The company's highest clinic concentration is in Texas, Tennessee, Michigan, New York, and Virginia, among other states.
U.S. Physical Therapy earns physical therapy revenue on a per-procedure, outpatient basis, generally structured through Clinic Partnerships in which the company holds a 65% to 75% typical equity stake (ranging 30% to 99%) alongside physical therapist partners who retain minority interests, receive base salaries, and can earn bonuses tied to their clinic's profitability. Departing partners' interests are subject to put and call rights priced at a predetermined multiple of clinic earnings. The IIP segment operates on a different model, contracting directly with employers, including a number of Fortune 500 companies, for onsite injury prevention, performance optimization, and ergonomic assessment services rather than billing third-party payors. Growth comes largely through acquisitions: the company completed multi-clinic transactions at ownership stakes ranging from 40% to 80% during 2023-2025, plus 14, 8, and 9 tuck-in clinic acquisitions in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.
Show full overview
U.S. Physical Therapy's revenue is directly exposed to the annual Medicare Physician Fee Schedule cycle: the 10-K discloses MPFS reimbursement cuts of 3.5%, 0.75%, 2.0%, 1.8%, and 1.5% for calendar years 2021 through 2025, respectively, before an expected 1.75% increase in 2026. With Medicare and Medicaid patients accounting for 35.8% of net patient revenue and 40.1% of visits in 2025, a return to the multi-year pattern of MPFS cuts — which regulators have imposed in four of the last five years — would pressure per-visit economics more than a single bad year of managed-care contract renegotiations.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS U.S. Physical Therapy (USPH) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About U.S. Physical Therapy (USPH) Q1 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS U.S. Physical Therapy’s (NYSE:USPH) Q1 CY2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS U.S. Physical Therapy’s (NYSE:USPH) Q1 CY2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS U.S. Physical Therapy’s (NYSE:USPH) Q1 CY2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMregulatoryMedicare/Medicaid36%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 40.1% of our visits and 35.8% of our net patient revenue was from patients with Medicare or Medicaid program coverage'
- MEDIUMCustomercommercial health insurers, HMOs, PPOs, and workers' compensation insurers10-K Item 1: 'Our physical therapy business depends to a significant extent on our relationships with commercial health insurers, health maintenance organizations, preferred provider organizations and workers' compensation insurers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $79.44. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $85.11 reached (−0.2% from $85.32); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $79.44. Stop-loss: $79.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 474.0 (forward 25.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover USPH with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $98.
What does U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. do?U.S. Physical Therapy operates through two segments: physical therapy clinics providing orthopedic, sports-injury, and...
U.S. Physical Therapy operates through two segments: physical therapy clinics providing orthopedic, sports-injury, and worker rehabilitation services, and an industrial injury prevention (IIP) segment contracting directly with employers, including Fortune 500 companies. The company owned and/or managed 780 clinics across 44 states at year-end 2025, generating $650.4 million in net patient revenue primarily through majority-owned Clinic Partnerships with local physical therapists.