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URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.Sell6.1·$89.35
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Urban Outfitters has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last quarters with an average surprise of 10.6%, and the stock sits in a technical uptrend with positive price momentum, but the current price is essentially at the analyst consensus target with no meaningful upside remaining.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Analyst Ceiling→Stable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
  • Technical Momentum Uptrend↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Apr 1, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.35 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including the Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly brands. As used in this document, unless otherwise defined, "Anthropologie" refers to... Read more

$89.35-12.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#4 of 15 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.27%
Stop $83.73Analyst target $78.61(reached)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst consensus$90.36+1.1%14 analysts
$89.35price
$90.36mean
$75
$111

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.35 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 24, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.7% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.0
P/E (Fwd)12.9
Mkt Cap$7.7B
EV/EBITDA10.5
Profit Mgn8.8%
ROE20.9%
Rev Growth10.4%
Beta1.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVENEWS LEGALMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $76.08Resistance $91.87

Price Targets

A.Upside-12.0%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! NEWS:LEGAL

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-24 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is URBN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.35 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $83.73. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the URBN stock price target?

Analyst target $78.61 reached (−12.0% from $89.35); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $83.73. Stop-loss: $83.73.

What are the risks of investing in URBN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is URBN overvalued or undervalued?

Urban Outfitters, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about URBN?

22 analysts cover URBN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $90.

What does Urban Outfitters, Inc. do?We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including...

We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including the Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly brands. As used in this document, unless otherwise defined, "Anthropologie" refers to our Anthropologie, Terrain and Maeve brands and "Free People" refers to our Free People and FP Movement brands.

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