Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $168.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Boot Barn is the largest US lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories, operating 459 stores in 49 states as of March 2025 with a stated potential of 900 stores. Revenue is driven by store sales and e-commerce (~10.5% of net sales)... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $168.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
About Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
Boot Barn Holdings operated 539 stores across 49 states as of March 28, 2026—more than four times the locations of its nearest direct competitor focused on western and work wear—opening 80 new stores during fiscal 2026. E-commerce represented 10.4% of total consolidated net sales, with more than 164 million website visits in fiscal 2026. The B Rewarded loyalty program counted approximately 10.8 million members who had purchased merchandise in the last three fiscal years.
Boot Barn earns revenue through transactional retail sales of western and work wear, with men's merchandise representing approximately 60% of fiscal 2026 sales. All stores are leased in high-traffic locations averaging 11,400 selling square feet, with new store investments targeting a net cash outlay of approximately $1.7 million and a three-year payback. The merchandise mix combines third-party brands such as Ariat, Carhartt, and Wrangler with 11 exclusive proprietary brands—including Cody James, Shyanne, and Hawx—that historically achieve better merchandise margins than third-party alternatives. The majority of exclusive brand products are manufactured in foreign countries, and third-party branded merchandise also relies on foreign sourcing, creating exposure to tariff changes and supply disruptions. Boot Barn competes with smaller regional chains, independent western-wear stores, farm supply stores, mass merchants, and online retailers.
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Geographic concentration in three states amplifies volatility risk. Of the 539 stores operating as of March 28, 2026, 195 were in Arizona, California, and Texas—about 36% of the total footprint—a cluster the 10-K explicitly identifies as subject to regional economic downturns and natural disasters. Texas and surrounding stores are additionally susceptible to energy-industry cycles, as many customers work in oil, gas, and related commodity extraction. California carries a separate infrastructure risk: the Store Support Center and one distribution center are located in southern California, a region the 10-K notes is prone to earthquakes and wildfires.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
From Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-09Recent Developments — Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Fenoglio Boot Company Elevates Western Footwear With Style and Comfort - Sports Illustrated — Sports Illustrated positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Cyclical Companies: Boot Barn (BOOT) and Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) - The Globe — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Insider Sell: Jonathon Kosoff Sells Shares of Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Boot Barn Holdings Stock Kicks Up Relative Strength Rating To 83 - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Earnings call transcript: Boot Barn Holdings reports strong Q4 2026 results - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Texas10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial performance is also particularly susceptible to economic and other conditions in California, Texas and other states where we have a significant number of stores'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $168.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $195.87 (+16.1%), stop $158.15 (−6.7%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $195.87 (+15.2% upside). Target $195.87 (+16.1%), stop $158.15 (−6.7%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $158.15.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum; Overbought (RSI 79).
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.1 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover BOOT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $225.
What does Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. do?Boot Barn is the largest US lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories,...
Boot Barn is the largest US lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories, operating 459 stores in 49 states as of March 2025 with a stated potential of 900 stores. Revenue is driven by store sales and e-commerce (~10.5% of net sales) targeting western enthusiasts, agricultural workers, and construction trades. Exclusive brands (Cody James, Shyanne) carry higher margins than third-party brands.