Skip to main content

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. At $170.52, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-day MA.

Boot Barn is the largest lifestyle retail chain for western and work-related footwear in the US with 459 stores in 49 states as of March 2025, targeting western enthusiasts and work-wear customers. Revenue comes from retail sales of boots, apparel, and accessories at... Read more

$170.52+21.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#5 of 12 Apparel Retail
Stop $158.40Target $206.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$237.14+39.1%14 analysts
$206.31our TP
$170.52price
$237.14mean
$282

Sell if holding. At $170.52, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.0
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA15.7
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE18.5%
Rev Growth16.0%
Beta1.75
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.47bearish
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$110-35.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial performance is also particularly susceptible to economic and other conditions in California, Texas and other states where we have a significant number of stores'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
6.2
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $138.25Resistance $172.14

Price Targets

$158
$206
A.Upside+21.0%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-13 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BOOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $170.52, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $158.40. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BOOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $206.31 (+21.1% upside). Prior stop was $158.40. Stop-loss: $158.40.

What are the risks of investing in BOOT?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-day MA.

Is BOOT overvalued or undervalued?

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BOOT?

22 analysts cover BOOT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $237.

What does Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. do?Boot Barn is the largest lifestyle retail chain for western and work-related footwear in the US with 459 stores in 49...

Boot Barn is the largest lifestyle retail chain for western and work-related footwear in the US with 459 stores in 49 states as of March 2025, targeting western enthusiasts and work-wear customers. Revenue comes from retail sales of boots, apparel, and accessories at brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce.

Related stocks: AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.) · VSCO (Victorias Secret & Co.) · BKE (Buckle, Inc. (The)) · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) · LULU (lululemon athletica inc.)