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REFReformation Inc.Sell6.2·$15.80
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Reformation is a fast-growing apparel retailer with 24% YoY growth and rising earnings estimates, but insiders sold $58M (6.3% of market cap) and only 7.5% upside remains to the analyst target.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Fundamentals With Leverage→Stable
  • Strong Growth Industry Leader→Stable
  • Extreme Insider Selling↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Reformation Inc. (REF) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $15.80, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Reformation Inc. manufactures and sells sustainable women's clothing and accessories in the United States and Internationally. It offers dresses, tops, pants, skirts, shorts, jeans, sweaters, shoes, jumpsuits, two-piece sets, outerwear, sleep and loungewear, swimwear, and... Read more

$15.80+6.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#3 of 15 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $14.69Analyst target $16.75(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst consensus$19.25+21.8%8 analysts
$16.75Analyst target
$15.80price
$19.25mean
$21

Sell if holding. At $15.80, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.0%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)79.0
P/E (Fwd)21.1
Mkt Cap$933M
EV/EBITDA41.9
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE—
Rev Growth24.1%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$10-36.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.0
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
8.3

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.0
Quality Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
9.3
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 4.45%=EXTREMEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 7.1>=5.5No SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $12.14Resistance $16.21

Price Targets

$15
$17
A.Upside+6.0%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 4.45%=extreme
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is REF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $15.80, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.69. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the REF stock price target?

Analyst target: $16.75 (+6.0% upside). Prior stop was $14.69. Stop-loss: $14.69.

What are the risks of investing in REF?

Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is REF overvalued or undervalued?

Reformation Inc. trades at a P/E of 79.0 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about REF?

13 analysts cover REF with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Reformation Inc. do?Reformation Inc. manufactures and sells sustainable women's clothing and accessories in the United States and...

Reformation Inc. manufactures and sells sustainable women's clothing and accessories in the United States and Internationally. It offers dresses, tops, pants, skirts, shorts, jeans, sweaters, shoes, jumpsuits, two-piece sets, outerwear, sleep and loungewear, swimwear, and accessories. The company also offers wedding collection. It retails its product through website, online channels, and stores, well as through wholesalers and other channels. The company was formerly known as REF Topco, Inc. and changed its name to Reformation Inc. in April 2025. Reformation Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Vernon, California.

Related stocks: BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.) · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) · URBN (Urban Outfitters, Inc.) · CRI (Carter's, Inc.) · AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.)
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