Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TXRH stock price target?

Take-profit $175.25 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $152.60.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TXRH?

Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (4); EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d.

Q: Is TXRH overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.4 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about TXRH?

37 analysts cover TXRH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $195.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $159.61: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants (714 company-owned, 102 franchised) across 49 U.S. states and 10 foreign countries under Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers concepts. Revenue is generated from company-operated restaurant sales plus franchising... Read more

$159.61+9.9% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#19 of 20 Restaurants

Stop $152.60Target $175.25(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1

Analyst target$194.72+22.0%25 analysts

$175.25our TP

$159.61price

$194.72mean

$225

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $159.61: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Thin upside margin: 9.9%

Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.4

P/E (Fwd)21.1

Mkt Cap$10.6B

EV/EBITDA16.8

Profit Mgn6.9%

ROE29.0%

Rev Growth3.1%

Beta0.90

Dividend1.86%

Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral

IV51%elevated

Max Pain$130-18.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

LOWGeographicTexas and Florida21%
10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 21% of our company restaurants are located in Texas and Florida and, as a result, we are sensitive to economic and other trends and developments in those states'
MEDIUMSupplierfour beef suppliers
10-K Item 1A: 'We currently purchase our beef primarily from four beef suppliers coming from the United States or Canada. These suppliers represent a significant portion of the total beef marketplace.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
Elizabeth K. Ingram appointed to Texas Roadhouse Board on March 5, 2026. CEO of White Castle System. No arrangements or understandings with other persons; no disagreement cited.
SEC filing →
2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
Keith Humpich (Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer) to receive continued $100K/quarter stipend through June 30, 2026 for supporting CFO transition to Mike Lenihan (appointed CFO December 3, 2025). Compensatory arrangement.
SEC filing →
2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
Director Kathleen M. Widmer retired from Board effective February 11, 2026 to focus on new business venture. Decision not result of any disagreement with Company.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.415%0.81

Quality4.315%0.64

Growth1.615%0.24

Momentum5.110%0.51

Sentiment7.010%0.70

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank4.010%0.40

Technical Setup7.15%0.35

Risk Profile6.55%0.33

Catalyst4.05%0.20

Overall (Σ contributions)4.57

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

3.3

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate

RSI

45 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $156.92Resistance $169.10

Price Targets

$153

$175

A.Upside+9.8%

A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TXRH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $159.61: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Prior stop was $152.60. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TXRH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $175.25 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $152.60. Stop-loss: $152.60.

What are the risks of investing in TXRH?

Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is TXRH overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.4 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TXRH?

37 analysts cover TXRH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $195.

What does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. do?Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants (714 company-owned, 102 franchised) across 49 U.S. states and 10...