TXNM Energy is a regulated electric utility that has missed earnings in all four of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 27%, has estimates trending down 34% over 30 days, and is in an RSI-14 capitulation-risk downtrend, while its free cash flow is negative 434% of net income.
Thesis pillars
- Catastrophic Fcf Quality→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Miss Estimate Cuts↑Improving
- Capitulation Risk Extreme Momentum↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Wait for pullback to $58.00. Price sits above the model's entry target of $58.00; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).
TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately 842,000 customers with $10.2 billion in projected capital expenditures for 2026-2030. PNM provides generation, transmission, and distribution under NMPRC regulation;... Read more
Wait for pullback to $58.00. Price sits above the model's entry target of $58.00; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — TXNM Energy, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TXNM Energy stock trades at EUR 52.25 with USD 6.5 billion value - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de neutral
- NEWS TXNM Energy, Inc. Estimates – NYSE:TXNM - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS TXNM Energy Inc's Dividend Analysis - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS TXNM Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 750.00M USD - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS TXNM Energy Inc's Dividend Analysis - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T12:43:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertwo largest REPs10-K Item 1: 'the two largest REPs accounted for 24% and 19% of TNMP's operating revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicAlbuquerque metropolitan area41%10-K Item 1: 'The Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, Los Lunas, and Santa Fe metropolitan areas accounted for 41.3%, 8.5%, 5.7% and 5.9% of PNM's 2025 revenues'
- MEDIUMregulatoryNMPRC10-K Item 1A: 'The rates PNM charges its customers are regulated by the NMPRC and FERC'
- MEDIUMregulatoryPUCT10-K Item 1A: 'TNMP is regulated by the PUCT'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $58.00. Price sits above the model's entry target of $58.00; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $52.81 reached (−9.9%), stop $57.46 (−2.0%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $52.81 reached (−9.9% from $58.60); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $52.81 reached (−9.9%), stop $57.46 (−2.0%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $57.46.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 33.7 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
10 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $61.
What does TXNM Energy, Inc. do?TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately...
TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately 842,000 customers with $10.2 billion in projected capital expenditures for 2026-2030. PNM provides generation, transmission, and distribution under NMPRC regulation; TNMP provides transmission and distribution only under PUCT jurisdiction. A pending merger with Blackstone Infrastructure at $61.25 per share received FERC and PUCT approval in early 2026, with NMPRC proceedings ongoing.