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TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc.Sell4.0·$57.28+0.39%
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TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.28: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

TXNM Energy is a holding company with two regulated electric utilities: PNM serving New Mexico (generation, transmission, distribution) and TNMP providing transmission and distribution services in Texas, together serving approximately 842,000 customers. A proposed merger with... Read more

$57.28+1.8% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#40 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-10.04%
IncomeYield2.96%(5y avg 3.08%)Payout116.67%at-risk
Stop $56.32Target $58.34(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$61.15+6.8%5 analysts
$58.34our TP
$57.28price
$61.15mean
$61

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.28: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — TXNM Energy, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-7.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.5
P/E (Fwd)17.3
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn6.7%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta0.17
Dividend2.96%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
1.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Estimates down -34.4% (30d)Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.1
Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
2.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
1.4
Roe
1.8
Current Ratio
2.2
Net Margin
3.3
Moat
5.2
Operating Margin
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -434% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
20 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $56.90Resistance $59.53

Price Targets

$56
$58
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXNM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.28: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $56.32. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

What is the TXNM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.34 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $56.32. Stop-loss: $56.32.

What are the risks of investing in TXNM?

Target reached (-7.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is TXNM overvalued or undervalued?

TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.5 (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TXNM?

9 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $61.

What does TXNM Energy, Inc. do?TXNM Energy is a holding company with two regulated electric utilities: PNM serving New Mexico (generation,...

TXNM Energy is a holding company with two regulated electric utilities: PNM serving New Mexico (generation, transmission, distribution) and TNMP providing transmission and distribution services in Texas, together serving approximately 842,000 customers. A proposed merger with Blackstone Infrastructure was approved by shareholders in August 2025 and is pending regulatory approvals expected to close in H2 2026.

Related stocks: CEPU (Central Puerto S.A.) · PCG (Pacific Gas & Electric Co.) · PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) · ELPC (Companhia Paranaense de Energia) · ES (Eversource Energy (D/B/A))
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