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NWENorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.Sell4.3·$71.05+2.29%
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NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.05 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

NorthWestern Energy Group (dba NorthWestern Energy) provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone NP as a regulated utility. Montana operations (NW Corp) serve 440,700 electric customers across ~73% of... Read more

$71.05+0.4% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#38 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-4.29%
IncomeYield3.74%(5y avg 4.53%)Payout97.43%at-risk
Stop $66.73Target $71.35(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$71.42+0.5%6 analysts
$71.35our TP
$71.05price
$71.42mean
$54
$79

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.05 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.1
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA13.5
Profit Mgn10.2%
ROE5.8%
Rev Growth6.6%
Beta0.36
Dividend3.74%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV94%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Value Rank
2.8
Growth Rank
4.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
2.6
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.49Resistance $72.81

Price Targets

$67
$71
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.6% upside)
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.05 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $66.73. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

What is the NWE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.35 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $66.73. Stop-loss: $66.73.

What are the risks of investing in NWE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is NWE overvalued or undervalued?

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.1 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NWE?

11 analysts cover NWE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $71.

What does NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. do?NorthWestern Energy Group (dba NorthWestern Energy) provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 850,300...

NorthWestern Energy Group (dba NorthWestern Energy) provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone NP as a regulated utility. Montana operations (NW Corp) serve 440,700 electric customers across ~73% of the state's land area. A pending all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills Corporation was announced August 2025.

Related stocks: CEPU (Central Puerto S.A.) · PCG (Pacific Gas & Electric Co.) · PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) · ELPC (Companhia Paranaense de Energia) · ES (Eversource Energy (D/B/A))
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