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MGEEMGE Energy Inc.Hold5.4·$77.66+1.25%
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MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated utility holding company operating electric and natural gas distribution through Madison Gas and Electric and a natural gas pipeline, primarily serving Dane County (Madison area). Electric operations represent ~72% of MGE's regulated... Read more

$77.66+7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#10 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-6.17%
IncomeYield2.45%(5y avg 2.12%)Payout48.08%sustainable
Entry $71.85(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $68.25Target $77.25(resistance)A.R:R -2.3:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$76.25-1.8%4 analysts
$77.25our TP
$77.66price
$76.25mean
$70
$81

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $77.66 has reached target $77.25. No upside to wait for. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)18.7
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA13.1
Profit Mgn19.0%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta0.72
Dividend2.45%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV90%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicMadison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin)91%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 91% located in the cities of Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryPSCW / FERC
    10-K Item 1: 'As a public utility, MGE is subject to regulation by the PSCW and the FERC'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Jared Bushek promoted from VP – CFO to EVP – CFO of MGE Energy and MGE, effective May 1, 2026. Retention award granted. No change in CFO identity.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
1.8
52w Position
7.0
GatesA.R:R -2.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $72.16Resistance $78.83

Price Targets

$68
$72
$77
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-2.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGEE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $77.66 has reached target $77.25. No upside to wait for. Target $77.25 (-0.5%), stop $68.25 (−13.8%), A.R:R -2.3:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MGEE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $77.25 (+7.5% upside). Target $77.25 (-0.5%), stop $68.25 (−13.8%), A.R:R -2.3:1. Stop-loss: $68.25.

What are the risks of investing in MGEE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Madison area (Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona, Wisconsin) (91.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MGEE overvalued or undervalued?

MGE Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MGEE?

7 analysts cover MGEE with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $76.

What does MGE Energy Inc. do?MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated utility holding company operating electric and natural gas distribution...

MGE Energy is a Wisconsin-based regulated utility holding company operating electric and natural gas distribution through Madison Gas and Electric and a natural gas pipeline, primarily serving Dane County (Madison area). Electric operations represent ~72% of MGE's regulated revenues, serving approximately 170,000 electric customers with ~91% concentrated in the cities of Fitchburg, Madison, Middleton, and Monona.

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