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TWTradeweb Markets Inc.Buy Wait5.7·$101.44-1.01%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Tradeweb Markets combines best-in-class 40% net margins, a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, and 21% revenue growth with a quality score of 8.2 that is among the highest in the batch, but a put/call ratio of 7.42 and a below-trend price signal caution on near-term timing.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Put Call RatioDeteriorating
  • Best In Class Margins QualityStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak Revenue GrowthImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Wait for pullback to $97.78. At $101.44 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $97.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Negative momentum.

Tradeweb Markets builds and operates electronic trading platforms for rates, credit, equities, and money markets, serving more than 3,000 clients in over 85 countries. Revenue comes from transaction fees and data subscriptions, with credit asset class revenues reaching $488.0... Read more

$101.44+6.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#35 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.55%(5y avg 0.40%)Payout12.41%sustainable
Entry $97.78(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $92.89Target $107.57(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$123.64+21.9%14 analysts
$107.57our TP
$101.44price
$123.64mean
$178

Wait for pullback to $97.78. At $101.44 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $97.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Tradeweb Markets Inc.

About Tradeweb Markets Inc.

Tradeweb Markets posted $488.0 million in credit asset class revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025, part of a platform that processed $2.6 trillion in average daily volume — up 213% from $0.8 trillion in 2020. The company serves more than 3,000 clients across 85 countries spanning institutional, wholesale, retail, and corporate treasury sectors. LSEG is Tradeweb's controlling shareholder and simultaneously holds a market data distribution agreement through which it distributes Tradeweb pricing data via its flagship financial platforms.

Tradeweb generates revenue through transaction fees and subscription charges across rates, credit, equities, and money markets, with credit revenues having grown from a niche product to $488.0 million annually over more than a decade since launch. The institutional client sector is the largest, comprising asset managers, hedge funds, insurance companies, and central banks that trade primarily through Tradeweb's D2C protocols including RFQ, portfolio trading, and AiEX automated execution. Dealer clients are foundational to the marketplace model: without dealers willing to provide two-way liquidity, the D2C protocols fail. Competitors include Bloomberg and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), each of which also offers data and analytics to institutional market participants and holds relationships with the vast majority of institutional, wholesale, and retail clients. The August 2024 acquisition of Institutional Cash Distributors broadened the company's offering to corporate treasury clients trading short-term instruments such as money market funds.

Show full overview

Tradeweb's relationship with LSEG spans ownership control and a commercial market data license, creating a dual dependency that the 10-K flags as a governance risk where LSEG's interests may conflict with those of other stockholders. LSEG controls Tradeweb under Nasdaq 'controlled company' status, which exempts it from certain board independence requirements. The market data license agreement with LSEG affiliates distributes Tradeweb pricing data through LSEG platforms; the filing also identifies potential expansion of this agreement as a key data monetization path, meaning LSEG's strategic priorities could shape Tradeweb's data distribution trajectory.

See also: Financial Services · Capital Markets

From Tradeweb Markets Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.0%
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.2
P/E (Fwd)22.1
Mkt Cap$21.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn40.7%
ROE14.5%
Rev Growth9.0%
Beta0.63
Dividend0.55%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$115+13.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartydealer clients
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on our dealer clients to support our marketplaces by transacting with our other institutional, wholesale and retail clients'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $101.00Resistance $109.66

Price Targets

$93
$98
$108
A.Upside+6.0%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TW stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $97.78. At $101.44 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $97.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $107.57 (+6.0%), stop $92.89 (−9.2%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $107.57 (+6.0% upside). Target $107.57 (+6.0%), stop $92.89 (−9.2%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $92.89.

What are the risks of investing in TW?

Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is TW overvalued or undervalued?

Tradeweb Markets Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.2 (forward 22.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TW?

24 analysts cover TW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $124.

What does Tradeweb Markets Inc. do?Tradeweb Markets builds and operates electronic trading platforms for rates, credit, equities, and money markets,...

Tradeweb Markets builds and operates electronic trading platforms for rates, credit, equities, and money markets, serving more than 3,000 clients in over 85 countries. Revenue comes from transaction fees and data subscriptions, with credit asset class revenues reaching $488.0 million for 2025 and average daily volume of $2.6 trillion. LSEG is the controlling shareholder.

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