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TWTradeweb Markets Inc.Sell6.3·$101.19+2.21%
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Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $101.19: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Tradeweb operates electronic trading marketplaces for global fixed income (U.S. Treasuries, swaps, corporate bonds, ETFs), equities, and money markets, serving 3,000+ institutional, wholesale, retail, and corporate clients across 85+ countries. Revenue is earned through... Read more

$101.19+16.0% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#8 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.55%(5y avg 0.40%)Payout12.35%sustainable
Stop $94.73Target $117.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$134.86+33.3%14 analysts
$117.33our TP
$101.19price
$134.86mean
$197

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $101.19: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 40. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.0), Material insider selling (11 sells, 0.03% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.0
P/E (Fwd)22.2
Mkt Cap$22.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn40.3%
ROE14.2%
Rev Growth21.2%
Beta0.62
Dividend0.55%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C6.67bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$135+33.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $94.25Resistance $113.23

Price Targets

$95
$117
A.Upside+16.0%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts22
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$135

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $101.19: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 40. Prior stop was $94.73. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $117.33 (+16.0% upside). Prior stop was $94.73. Stop-loss: $94.73.

What are the risks of investing in TW?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.0), Material insider selling (11 sells, 0.03% of cap).

Is TW overvalued or undervalued?

Tradeweb Markets Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.0 (forward 22.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TW?

22 analysts cover TW with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $135.

What does Tradeweb Markets Inc. do?Tradeweb operates electronic trading marketplaces for global fixed income (U.S. Treasuries, swaps, corporate bonds,...

Tradeweb operates electronic trading marketplaces for global fixed income (U.S. Treasuries, swaps, corporate bonds, ETFs), equities, and money markets, serving 3,000+ institutional, wholesale, retail, and corporate clients across 85+ countries. Revenue is earned through transaction fees and data/subscription services; average daily volume reached $2.6 trillion in 2025. LSEG is the controlling shareholder.

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