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TRLVTrulieve Cannabis Corp. SubordiSell5.5·$10.62
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

TRLV cannot be traded this run due to a missing price feed, and beneath that data gap sits a mixed picture: a consistent earnings beat streak and strong Piotroski quality offset by margin-compression value-trap signals and declining revenue.

Thesis pillars

  • Value Trap Margin Compression↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Piotroski Cash Quality→Stable
  • Declining Revenue Trend→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 6, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Trulieve Cannabis Corp. Subordi (TRLV) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 6 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Trulieve Cannabis Corp. is a vertically integrated, multi-state cannabis operator headquartered in Tallahassee, Florida, describing itself as the largest cannabis retailer in the United States with market-leading positions in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and West... Read more

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.35%
Stop $9.88Analyst target $15.82(−13% haircut)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst consensus$18.18+71.2%7 analysts
$15.82Analyst target
$10.62price
$18.18mean
$21

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Trulieve Cannabis Corp. Subordi

About Trulieve Cannabis Corp. Subordi

Trulieve operates 233 dispensaries and 15 cultivation and processing facilities across nine U.S. states as of December 31, 2025, anchored by market-leading positions in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona that the company organizes into three regional hubs: Southeast, Northeast, and Southwest. Florida alone accounts for 162 of the company's dispensaries and five of its 15 cultivation and processing facilities, including a 750,000-square-foot automated indoor cultivation facility.

Trulieve earns revenue by cultivating, processing, and retailing its own branded cannabis products — premium tier brands including Avenue, Cultivar Collection, and Muse alongside value-tier brands Co2lors and Roll One — supplemented by partner brands such as Alien Labs, Khalifa Kush, and Seed Junky sold through more than 200 of its retail locations. In Florida and Georgia the company is fully vertically integrated from cultivation through retail, while in Arizona, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia it has achieved varying degrees of vertical integration to support wholesale and retail operations. In December 2025, Trulieve redeemed the full $368.0 million principal of its 8.0% Senior Secured Notes due 2026 and issued $140.0 million of new 10.5% Senior Secured Notes due 2030, followed by a $60.0 million second tranche in January 2026, refinancing its balance sheet as it also pursues a conditional Texas Dispensing Organization license awarded in December 2025.

Show full overview

Trulieve's business remains legally exposed at the federal level: cannabis is classified as a Schedule I controlled substance under the Controlled Substances Act even though, as of December 31, 2025, adult-use cannabis is legal in 24 states plus the District of Columbia, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. On December 18, 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order directing the Attorney General to complete the rulemaking process to reschedule marijuana to Schedule III of the CSA in the most expeditious manner, a change that, if finalized, would ease the tax and banking constraints tied to Schedule I status but remains subject to completion of a formal rulemaking process with no fixed deadline.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

From Trulieve Cannabis Corp. Subordi's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 49%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)18.9
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA7.6
Profit Mgn-41.6%
ROE-47.7%
Rev Growth-10.3%
Beta1.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV126%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Trulieve eliminated the stand-alone Chief Accounting Officer position and terminated Brett Walsh without cause, effective June 30, 2026; CFO Jan Reese was appointed principal accounting officer with no compensation adjustment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    President Jason Pernell mutually agreed to terminate his employment with Trulieve effective June 11, 2026, entering a Separation Agreement with a mutual release and a one-year equity lock-up. No successor named in the disclosed text.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
0.5
Value Rank
6.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
5.5
Macd
6.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $9.79Resistance $11.66

Price Targets

$10
$16
A.Upside+48.9%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRLV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $9.88. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRLV stock price target?

Analyst target: $15.82 (+48.9% upside). Prior stop was $9.88. Stop-loss: $9.88.

What are the risks of investing in TRLV?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is TRLV overvalued or undervalued?

Trulieve Cannabis Corp. Subordi trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TRLV?

13 analysts cover TRLV with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Trulieve Cannabis Corp. Subordi do?Trulieve Cannabis Corp. is a vertically integrated, multi-state cannabis operator headquartered in Tallahassee,...

Trulieve Cannabis Corp. is a vertically integrated, multi-state cannabis operator headquartered in Tallahassee, Florida, describing itself as the largest cannabis retailer in the United States with market-leading positions in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated 233 dispensaries and 15 cultivation and processing facilities across nine states, organized into three regional hubs, selling owned brands such as Avenue, Cultivar Collection, and Muse alongside partner brands to medical and adult-use cannabis customers.

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